Capital Humano, Inversión Educativa Y Crecimiento Económico: Revisión Y Actualización De La Asimetría Económica Regional En España (1980-2012)

Resumen:Uno de los temas más controvertidos dentro de la teoría económica es el papel productivo que el capital humano ejerce sobre el desarrollo regional, y, por ende, en la determinación de las disparidades económicas territoriales. Aunque los resultados obtenidos al respecto difieren, pues dependen en gran medida de los datos y la metodología utilizada, la conclusión común es que parece existir un efecto positivo del capital humano en el desarrollo económico. En este sentido, los objetivos propuestos en este trabajo han sido los siguientes: en primer lugar, se trata de analizar el proceso de convergencia experimentado por el Producto Interior Bruto per cápita (PIBpc) en el periodo 1980-2012, así como los factores determinantes de dicho proceso; y en segundo lugar, se estudia el papel desempeñado por el capital humano en la dinámica de las disparidades económicas regionales.Abstract: One of the most controversial issues in economic theory is the productive role that human capital has on regional development, and therefore, on determining the regional economic disparities. Although the results obtained in this regard differ because they depend heavily on data and methodology, the common conclusion is that there seems to be a positive effect of human capital on economic development. The recent economic theory holds that human capital has a positive impact on economic development and growth in productivity. This positive relationship is obtained through three ways. First, the education enables the evolution of knowledge through the training of scientists; and it becomes feasible thanks to the preparation of technical application of this knowledge, improving the adaptation of the system to the changes performed in products, processes and productive organization. Second, education also increases the skills of workers to process information and to make decisions, which significantly affects their productivity. And third, the imperfections in the process of accumulation of human capital are produced by positive externalities, or by the difficulties of the access to the credit in order to finance this kind of investment. It implies the responsibility of the provision of education belongs to the Public Administration, in parallel with the political decisions in this field, which should also take into account distributional issues such as equal opportunities, or effects on the quality of life of workers. The use of several databases and methodologies in the calculation of this influence means that there is even further discussions around the magnitude of the relationship. The most important point about this phenomenon is that the Public Administrations (PAs) have an element which can guide the economic policy, favouring the promotion of human capital endowment in productive and business fabric. The proposed objectives in this paper were as follows: firstly, to analyze the process of convergence experienced by per capita GDP in period 1980-2012, as well as the determinants of this process. And secondly, to study the role of human capital in the dynamics of regional economic disparities. The statistical sources consulted are the following ones: a) GDP at market prices (in constant 2000 euros) is taken from the data base BD.MORES (updated in December 2011), which is offered by the Secretary of State for Tax Office and Budgets of the Ministry of Economy and by the Regional Accounts of the National Institute of Statistics (INE). The period 2008-2012 has been estimated by applying the GDP series from BD.MORES of variation of the indexes of chained volume offered by INE; b) data about population and employed population have been obtained from BD.MORES, updated with information provided by INE; c) data about human capital, employed population, labor force and working age population have been taken from the Valencian Institute of Economic Research (IVIE). This database classifies the population by the level of education in the following strata: L0: illiterates, L1: no education and primary education, L2: Elementary Bachelor / Basic General Education (EGB) / Compulsory Secondary Education (ESO) and Vocational Training I (FP I) / Intermediate Formative Cycles, L3: Higher Bachelor / Unified Baccalaureate Multipurpose (BUP) and Pre-University Course (COU) / Baccalaureate and Vocational Training II (FP II) / Higher Professional Training, L4: Pre-Higher studies, and L5: Higher education; d) the series of stock of public capital in education come from the database BD.MORES and the regional distribution of Public Expenditure on education from the database of the BBVA Foundation, which reflects the main regional differences in the Spanish public sector. The methodology for the study which has just been presented, has been based both on the calculation of statistical indicators, such as inequality index, sigma convergence index and the Theil index and its breakdown, and some econometric regressions in order to establish the relationship between human capital and the level of economic development. The obtained results allow us to establish the following conclusions. First, the regional economic disparities are still an explicit circumstance of Spanish regional economy. The regional asymmetry which exists in the configured territorial economic system, keeps on being as a persistent and difficult problem to be solved. The regions, which stand out because of their contribution to the unequal level of economic development process, are Madrid, Andalusia and Catalonia, whose differences between their percentage of generated GDP and their percentage of concentrating population reach the highest values ​​in all the Spanish regions. Second, the convergence process of the level of economic development has been intensified between 2000-2008. Since last year, an extended divergent process begins to occur, coincident with the period during which start showing the consequences of the international economic crisis on the Spanish economy. This divergent course of per capita GDP is favored by the slightly divergent dynamics of the apparent productivity of employment, but particularly by the sharply divergent evolution of per capita job. This causes that the latter factor explains more than 90% of the regional differences in per capita GDP in the last year analyzed (2012). Third, per capita human capital in the Spanish regions, valued from the different levels of education achieved by the population in the productive system, has presented an intensely convergent process throughout the period 2000-2007. Thereafter, the process was interrupted, as the evolution was reversed, mainly due to the strongly divergent advancement of regional employment rate in the period 2007-2012. This was driven mainly by the regional differences produced in the destruction of the territorial employment as a result of the economic crisis. Indeed, the regional discrepancies in employment rate have explained over 60% of existing regional disparities in per capita human capital in the last year analyzed. Fourth, the empirical evidence validates that the elements considered as determining of the level of economic development have positively influenced the study of the Spanish regions, as predicted by theoretical models in Economics. Among these models, human capital, factor under study in this paper, has been an important element of regional economic growth in Spain. The ratio resulting from the regressions is positive and highly significant, which certainly verifies the positive effect that this component is providing the level of territorial economic development of the Spanish regions. Fifth, the results obtained in this study highlights public spending on education and the level of investment in educational capital stock as clearly influential mechanisms in the formation of human capital in the Spanish regions. The coefficients, which show variables referenced above, are positive and remarkably significant. This means that they are accredited in the process of territorial formation of human capital in the Spanish regions. And finally, taking into account the data provided above, it is suggested to recommend public authorities that they should continue making outstanding efforts in budgetary spending on education, which allows to increase the level of regional development, according to the influence exerted by the territorial public spending on education and on the stock of educative public capital on human capital generated and this latter on the level of economic development. This effort must be intensified in the poorest regions in order to foster an economic rapprochement between Spanish regions and an active process of economic and social cohesion in Spanish economy.