Economía Verde Y Empleo Verde En Andalucia: Un Análisis Multisectorial A Través De La Matriz De Contabilidad Social

Resumen:La economía verde ha sido propuesta por diferentes organizaciones internacionales como un modelo económico para el siglo XXI que gravita en torno al respeto al medio ambiente. Este documento trata de identificar, con criterios de eficiencia económica y eficiencia social; los "sectores potencialmente verdes" que pueden ser estimulados por una estrategia nacional para desarrollar una economía verde en Andalucía. Para ello, utilizaremos la MCS de Andalucía 2010, identificando, mediante los coeficientes de absorción y difusión normalizados y mediante multiplicadores de empleo, analizando la capacidad de creación de empleo de un grupo de doce sectores identificados como "sectores potencialmente verdes".Abstract:During the last decades the green economy has been proposed from different international organizations as an economic model for the 21st century that gravitates around respecting the environment. This paper tries to identify, with criteria of economic efficiency (high economic impact) and social efficiency (high impact on job creation, green jobs), the "potentially green sectors" that can be stimulated by a national strategy to develop a green economy in Spain. For this, we will use the Social Accounting Matrix of Andalusia 2010, identifying, by means of the normalized absorption and diffusion coefficients and by means of employment multipliers, analyzing capacity for job creation sectors from a group of twelve sectors that we have identified as "potentially green sectors". The Social Accounting Matrix model is an extension of the Input-Output table by Leontief (1936: 105-125), developed by the Cambridge Growth Project (Stone, 1962). A Social Accounting Matrix offers in greater detail the structure of income distribution, the pattern of taxation and the transfer system existing in a country (Casares et al., 2017: 120). In this respect, we found interesting cross-sectional analysis based on the European sector. Social Accounting Matrix from different European Union countries were compared and analyzed (Soza & Ramos, 2005). The analysis was also done comparing Spanish regions, for example Social Accounting Matrix from Andalusia against the Social Accounting Matrix from Extremadura (Cardenete et al., 2000). Social Accounting Matrix based analysis are considered to be a reliable tool for decision making with regards to economic policy by policy makers and to guide the measures to promote wealth and job creation. In our case, we will use the Social Accounting Matrix Model for Spain, 2010 (Mainar et al., 2017) to identity the characteristics of the “potentially green sectors” and their capacity to generate indirect, direct and total employment opportunities. The matrix used for this study is based on European research studies from Agro Social Accounting Matrix (Müller et al., 2009), focused on agricultural and agro-food, and the Social Accounting Matrix Model for Spain, 2010, (Mainar et al., 2017), centered on bioenergy, biochemistry and bioindustry. The employment multipliers of a Social Accounting Matrix model provide information about the expansionary impact that final demand shocks have on domestic usage; that is, they show us each sector's responsiveness rate, in terms of employment, to the changes in the demand. This multiplier originates from Pasinetti’s (1973) vertically integrated labor vectors. This calculation leads to the implicit assumption that there is a linear relationship between the employment from each sector and the value of their production. Thus, having the relationship into consideration, we can determine the impact on the employment of a specific economic sector resulting from the changes in production. Therefore, the sectors with the greatest value from the employment multiplier are the ones creating more jobs from receiving an exogenous income injection. By observing the evolution of this indicator, we could verify whether or not the employment sectoral composition will follow the same behavioral dynamic when facing changes to the economic structure. From the research it can be deduced that except for agriculture and forestry, the “potentially green sectors” present strong backward linkages and are, therefore, sectors that drive the economy, so that any exogenous stimulus on them will have a great impact on the demand of the Andalusian economy. Thus, the “potentially green sectors” likely to be stimulated by policy makers to generate green economic development would be, in order from greater to lesser sensitivity of dispersion: livestock, food industry, wood industry, paper industry, bioenergy, fishing, textile industry, chemical industry, biochemical industry and water treatment. The results indicate that the sectors in which employment is generated above the average of all sectors of the Andalusian economy as a direct consequence on them of an exogenous stimulus would be, in order from highest to lowest direct effect, forestry, water treatment, agriculture and livestock. These are four sectors with low capital intensity and little incorporation of new technologies that can increase labor productivity, so any exogenous stimulus that generates an increase in production in these sectors will be accompanied by a significant increase in employment in them. Given the results obtained in our analysis, we can affirm that the twelve "potentially green" selected show similarities in terms of the sensitivity of their dispersion and their dispersion power. Regarding the sensitivity of their dispersion (normalized absorption coefficient), it is shown that only two of the selected sectors have sensitivities lower than unity, forestry and agriculture. Whereas if we look at the dispersion power (normalized diffusion coefficient) we can see how once of the twelve selected sectors they have powers lower than unity, and only the food industry would be above unity. Thus, of the twelve “potentially green sectors”, only the food industry is a key sector with strong backward and forward linkages, while the livestock, wood industry, paper industry, bioenergy sectors , fishing, textile industry, chemical industry, biochemical industry and water are driving sectors; forestry and agriculture being independent sectors. Therefore, the “potentially green sectors”, as key sectors and drivers whose stimulus would generate greater economic impacts in Andalusia and the food industry (key sector), livestock, the wood industry, the paper industry, bioenergy, fishing, the textile industry, the chemical industry, the biochemical industry and water are driving sectors (driving sectors). Thus, taking into account economic efficiency criteria, these ten sectors are the ones that must be previously stimulated in a strategy to promote the green economy in Andalusia.