Retos y oportunidades económicas de la adaptación al cambio climático: El caso de Cataluña

RESUMEN:Los cambios que se están produciendo en el clima requieren que las especies y ecosistemas, pero también la sociedad y la economía se adapten a las nuevas condiciones. Los cambios producidos y los que se esperan suponen determinados riesgos para las actividades económicas más expuestas, pero también algunas oportunidades. La investigación, centrada en el ámbito geográfico de Cataluña, expone los sectores más vulnerables al cambio climático, así como las principales oportunidades comerciales que pueden surgir en el nuevo contexto. Se han realizado un conjunto de entrevistas a los principales agentes, así como análisis de la literatura especializada.ABSTRACT:The changes that are already occurring in the climate require that species and ecosystems, but also society as a whole and the economy adapt to the new conditions. As indicated by climate models, each region of the planet will suffer some sort of changes, which will be specific for each geographical area. These changes imply risks for certain economic activities, but also some opportunities. This research tries to analyze the main chances and economic opportunities from climate change adaptation in Catalonia. To do that we follow a methodology that combines qualitative analysis, literature reviews, interviews and quantitative analysis, using methods such as input-output analysis. Firstly, an introduction to the most important aspects of climate change and climate change adaptation in Catalonia, Spain and the Mediterranean regions in general is conducted. Then the vulnerability of the Catalan economy is analyzed, considering the economic importance of those activities that depend most on climate. An input-output analysis has been conducted for this purpose. Finally, a set of challenges and opportunities are shown, in order not only to adapt the economy to climate change, but also to take advantage of those aspects that can arise from the new expected climate scenario. From the analysis, the most vulnerable sectors to climate change in Catalonia are: Agriculture and livestock, infrastructures and construction, tourism, finance services and insurances, and consultancy and other professional services. All these activities account for approximately 30% of value added and 28.7% of employment in Catalonia. Those are static effects, so without considering the ability to attract other sectors and, therefore, in generating employment.Moreover, there are several important opportunities that could arise from climate change in Catalonia. For the agricultural sector, some opportunities are: planting of crops more resistant to water scarcity and rising temperatures and more adaptable species to more arid climates; adjustment of planting dates of crops; plantations at higher levels; increased efficiency of irrigation, and the promotion of xeriscaping. For infrastructure and construction sectors: more effective facilities for water availability and treatment; improvements in wastewater treatment; adaptation of buildings to the new climatic conditions (roofs, improved insulation, etc.); building renovation; prevention of flooding (coastal defenses, dams and other infrastructure); sustainable urbanism, consistent with reduced availability of water, and with the inclusion of bioclimatic design. For the tourism sector: seasonal adjustment of tourism activities; possibility of extending the tourist seasons, since is tending to bimodal distribution of tourism; possibility to generalize tourism based on secondary homes; installation of technologies that improve the efficiency of water supply in hotels; landscape design adapted to local climatic conditions; for winter tourism: diversification of activities, slope enlargement, moving to higher altitudes and to north face slopes, promoting glacier skiing and snowmaking. In relation to financial services: increase the supply of products linked to new technologies and new risks; promotion of transfer of risks to the capital markets; increased demand for consultancy risk management; extend the customer base due to more protection required against new and extreme climate risks. For the consultancy and professional services sector: advisory services, legal consultancy and risk management; environmental information; applications of consumer software and business applications on portable devices with climate-related services; public relations services and tools to deal with new conflicts that arise from climate change; training and education. Finally, we have conclude that to exploit the opportunities that process of adaptation to climate change can offer it is necessary to have a greater understanding of the impacts that climate change is producing and will produce in the future. This is an essential and unknown aspect by most of economic and social agents. Moreover, in long-term, the public intervention is key. As the interviews have shown, in business there is no a temporal perspective that enable an appropriate pace of adaptation measures to climate change, not even longer term business strategies, nor for those sectors that will be most affected . The public sector should provide an adequate knowledge of the impacts and the best adaptive strategies, and create an appropriate regulatory framework and incentives to stimulate long-term consideration of the current decision-making.