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The effect of long and short time oil shocks on economic growth in Iran

Author

Listed:
  • Sayyed Abdolmajid Jalae

    (Economic Department, university of Kerman)

  • Sanaz Mohammadi

    (Economic Department, university of Mashhad)

Abstract

Oil is one of the strategic good so that price fluctuations and shocks of it have major effects on economic growth and recession in depended countries to revenues of it. In this study, it is tried that the effect of oil price shocks investigated in two types (short and long time) on Economic growth in Iran. Its Period is from 1974 to 2006. According it, oil price uncertainty is quantized by GARCH model and is determined the effects of oil price shocks on economic growth in Iran during a short and extended time by Vector Auto-regression Estimates (VAR), Vector Error Correction Estimates (VECM), Unrestricted Co-integration Rank Test (Trace) tests. The results of these estimations have shown that the effect of oil price shocks in short and prolonged course on economic growth in Iran had been negative.

Suggested Citation

  • Sayyed Abdolmajid Jalae & Sanaz Mohammadi, 2012. "The effect of long and short time oil shocks on economic growth in Iran," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 15(45), pages 69-92, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:rej:journl:v:15:y:2012:i:46:p:69-92
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    Cited by:

    1. Rafik Nazarian & Ashkan Amiri, 2014. "Asymmetry of the Oil Price Pass Through to Inflation in Iran," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 4(3), pages 457-464.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic growth -oil price shock- GARCH model- VAR model-VECM model;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • Q33 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Resource Booms (Dutch Disease)

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