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The Relationship between Exchange Rate and Key Macroeconomic Indicators. Case Study: Romania

Author

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  • Anca Elena Nucu

    (“Alexandru Ioan Cuza” University of Iasi,Romania)

Abstract

The purpose of this article is to examine the influence of the following key macroeconomic indicators: GDP, inflation rate, money supply, interest rate and balance of payments on exchange rate of the Romanian leu against the most important currencies (EUR, USD) during 2000-2010 period. The main findings of our study are: it is an inverse relationship between exchange rate EUR/RON, Gross Domestic Product, respectively money supply and a direct relationship between exchange rate EUR/RON, inflation and interest rate. We can not validate the correlation between exchange rate and Balance of payment, because the test statistic is not significant.

Suggested Citation

  • Anca Elena Nucu, 2011. "The Relationship between Exchange Rate and Key Macroeconomic Indicators. Case Study: Romania," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 14(41), pages 127-145, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:rej:journl:v:14:y:2011:i:41:p:127-145
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Muhammad Kamran Khan & Jian-Zhou Teng & Muhammad Imran Khan, 2019. "Cointegration between macroeconomic factors and the exchange rate USD/CNY," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 5(1), pages 1-15, December.
    2. H. F. Tareq Ahmed & Nur Syazwani Mazlan, 2021. "The Impact of Interest Rate on Exchange Rate Within ASEAN Countries: Evidence from Linear and Nonlinear ARDL Frameworks," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 13(1), pages 7-34, January.
    3. Sinha, Pankaj & Kohli, Deepti, 2013. "Modeling exchange rate dynamics in India using stock market indices and macroeconomic variables," MPRA Paper 45816, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Ilu, Ahmad Ibraheem, 2020. "ANALYSIS OF KEY DETERMINANTS OF EXCHANGE RATE STABILITY IN NIGERIA: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) Approach," MPRA Paper 121961, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 Nov 2021.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    exchange rate; GDP; money supply; inflation; balance of payment; econometric analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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