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Great Volatility, Great Moderation and Great Moderation Again

Author

Listed:
  • Jakob Grazzini

    (University of Pavia)

  • Domenico Massaro

    (University of Milan)

Abstract

We investigate the sources of changes in GDP volatility observed from 1966 to 2018. We develop a general equilibrium model and calibrate it to US data to characterize the contribution of micro level productivity shocks, inter-sectoral linkages and households' behavior to aggregate volatility. Our results show that changes in sectoral volatility played an important role in shaping GDP volatility and that asymmetries in the economy had a different impact on aggregate volatility over time. Moreover, we show that, despite an increase before the financial crisis of 2007, aggregate volatility has remained low until 2018. (Copyright: Elsevier)

Suggested Citation

  • Jakob Grazzini & Domenico Massaro, 2022. "Great Volatility, Great Moderation and Great Moderation Again," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 44, pages 269-283, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:issued:19-98
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    Cited by:

    1. Jackie M. L. Chan & Han (Steffan) Qi, 2025. "Mergers, Firm Size, and Volatility in a Granular Economy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 55, January.
    2. Grazzini, Jakob & Spelta, Alessandro, 2022. "An empirical analysis of the global input–output network and its evolution," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 594(C).
    3. Florian Misch & Martin Rey, 2022. "The case for a loan-based euro area stability fund," Discussion Papers 20, European Stability Mechanism, revised 05 May 2022.
    4. J. M. L. Chan & H. Qi, 2025. "Mergers, Firm Size, and Volatility in a Granular Economy," Post-Print hal-04719146, HAL.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business Cycle; Micro-Macro Volatility; Input-Output Network;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • D57 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Input-Output Tables and Analysis

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