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Asset-Pricing Implications of Biologically Based Non-Expected Utility

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  • Emil Iantchev

    (Syracuse University)

Abstract

Results in population ecology suggest that evolutionary successful species should have an adaptive (reference-based) S-shaped utility function that is intrinsically more sensitive to aggregate than uninsured idiosyncratic shocks--the former cannot be diversified demographically. To test the asset-pricing relevance of these ideas, I embed the non-expected utility specification implied by evolutionary theory into an economy with partial risk sharing due to limited commitment. For the benchmark specification (CRRA=6 over gains), Monte Carlo simulations of a Markov growth economy produce the following results: (i) matching the degree of consumption-smoothing in the cross section, the Sharpe ratio for a Lucas tree is 0.33, an increase of 44 percent relative to expected utility; (ii) the risk-free rate is low, stable and counter cyclical, hence equity returns, unlike in the expected utility case, have the correct pattern of predictability; (iii) in the cross section, excess returns across equity classes exhibit both a value premium and a size discount with risk adjusted returns that are at least two times higher than their expected utility counterparts. (Copyright: Elsevier)

Suggested Citation

  • Emil Iantchev, 2013. "Asset-Pricing Implications of Biologically Based Non-Expected Utility," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 16(3), pages 497-510, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:issued:11-255
    DOI: 10.1010/j.red.2012.08.002
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Recursive utility; Limited commitment; Equity return predictability; Cross-sectional distribution of equity returns;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D53 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Financial Markets
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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