IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rbs/ijbrss/v9y2020i5p235-244.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The impact of macroeconomic variables on credit risk: Evidence from Indonesian business sector level data

Author

Listed:
  • M. Khoerul Mubin

    (Department of Economics, Universitas Airlangga, Surabaya, 60286,Indonesia)

  • Arif Sugara

    (Department of Economics, Universitas Airlangga, Surabaya, 60286,Indonesia)

Abstract

This study aims to empirically examine the effect of macroeconomic variables on credit risk in each business sector in Indonesia. Using time-series quarterly data during the period 2011q1-2019q2, this study utilized the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The results of this study explain that macroeconomic variables namely GDP growth in the long run have a significant negative effect on credit risk in 6 sectors and in the short term have a significant negative effect on 6 sectors. Inflation has a significant positive effect in the long run on one sector, namely the provision of accommodation and provision of food and drink, and a significant negative effect on 6 sectors, in the short term inflation has a significant positive effect on 7 sectors and a significant negative effect on one sector, namely education services. The last variable is the long-term loan interest rate which has a positive effect on 7 sectors and in the short term has a significant positive effect on 6 sectors on the high value of credit risk in each business sector in Indonesia. The result indicating that macroeconomic variables have a real impact on credit risk. Key Words: Credit Risk, GDP Growth, Inflation, Interest rates.

Suggested Citation

  • M. Khoerul Mubin & Arif Sugara, 2020. "The impact of macroeconomic variables on credit risk: Evidence from Indonesian business sector level data," International Journal of Research in Business and Social Science (2147-4478), Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 9(5), pages 235-244, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:rbs:ijbrss:v:9:y:2020:i:5:p:235-244
    DOI: 10.20525/ijrbs.v9i5.804
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ssbfnet.com/ojs/index.php/ijrbs/article/view/804/657
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://doi.org/10.20525/ijrbs.v9i5.804
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.20525/ijrbs.v9i5.804?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Castro, Vítor, 2013. "Macroeconomic determinants of the credit risk in the banking system: The case of the GIPSI," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 672-683.
    2. Ghosh, Amit, 2015. "Banking-industry specific and regional economic determinants of non-performing loans: Evidence from US states," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 93-104.
    3. Ali, Asghar & Daly, Kevin, 2010. "Macroeconomic determinants of credit risk: Recent evidence from a cross country study," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 165-171, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ismail Tijjani Idris & Sabri Nayan, 2016. "The Joint Effects of Oil Price Volatility and Environmental Risks on Non-performing Loans: Evidence from Panel Data of Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 6(3), pages 522-528.
    2. Michael Adusei & Ngozi Adeleye & Beatrice Sarpong‐Danquah, 2022. "Legal cost of contract enforcement and nonperforming loans: Is credit information sharing relevant?," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(6), pages 2501-2514, September.
    3. Tarchouna, Ameni & Jarraya, Bilel & Bouri, Abdelfettah, 2017. "How to explain non-performing loans by many corporate governance variables simultaneously? A corporate governance index is built to US commercial banks," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 645-657.
    4. Biswajit PATRA & Puja PADHI, 2016. "Determinants of nonperforming assets-bank-specific and macroeconomic factors: A panel data analysis of different group of commercial banks operating in India," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(4(609), W), pages 215-236, Winter.
    5. Biswajit PATRA & Puja PADHI, 2016. "Determinants of nonperforming assets-bank-specific and macroeconomic factors: A panel data analysis of different group of commercial banks operating in India," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(4(609), W), pages 215-236, Winter.
    6. Isma il Tijjani Idris & Sabri Nayan, 2017. "A Pooled Mean Group Approach to the Joint Effects of Oil Price Changes and Environmental Risks on Non-Performing Loans: Evidence from Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting the Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(3), pages 345-351.
    7. Nina Vujanović & Nikola Fabris, 2021. "Does market competition affect all banks equally? Empirical evidence on Montenegro," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 10(2), pages 87-107.
    8. Mustafa Tevfik Kartal & Derviş Kirikkaleli & Fatih Ayhan, 2023. "Nexus between non‐performing loans and economic growth in emerging countries: Evidence from Turkey with wavelet coherence approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 1250-1260, April.
    9. Brei, Michael & Jacolin, Luc & Noah, Alphonse, 2020. "Credit risk and bank competition in Sub-Saharan Africa," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    10. Vuslat Us, 2017. "A dynamic approach to analysing the effect of the global crisis on nonperforming loans: evidence from the Turkish banking sector," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(3), pages 186-192, February.
    11. Aleš Melecký & Martin Melecký & Monika Šulganová, 2015. "Úvěry v selhání a makroekonomika: modelování systémového kreditního rizika v České republice [Non-Performing Loans and The Macroeconomy: Modeling the Systemic Credit Risk in the Czech Republic]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2015(8), pages 921-947.
    12. Lei Shi & Neil Allan & John Evans & Yin Yun, 2018. "Significance of Controllable and Uncontrollable Drivers in Credit Defaults," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 37(1), pages 30-41, March.
    13. Ashraf, Badar Nadeem & Zheng, Changjun & Jiang, Chonghui & Qian, Ningyu, 2020. "Capital regulation, deposit insurance and bank risk: International evidence from normal and crisis periods," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    14. Ameni Tarchouna & Bilel Jarraya & Abdelfettah Bouri, 2022. "Do board characteristics and ownership structure matter for bank non-performing loans? Empirical evidence from US commercial banks," Journal of Management & Governance, Springer;Accademia Italiana di Economia Aziendale (AIDEA), vol. 26(2), pages 479-518, June.
    15. Biswa Swarup Misra & Paolo Coccorese, 2025. "What affected stressed advances of Indian banks in the early 2000s? An investigation of the role of bank-specific and macroeconomic factors," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 1-24, February.
    16. Haithem Awijen & Younes Ben Zaied & Ahmed Imran Hunjra, 2023. "Systematic and Unsystematic Determinants of Sectoral Risk Default Interconnectedness," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 62(2), pages 561-587, August.
    17. Gila-Gourgoura, E. & Nikolaidou, E., 2017. "Credit Risk Determinants in the Vulnerable Economies of Europe: Evidence from the Spanish Banking System," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Democritus University of Thrace (DUTH), Kavala Campus, Greece, vol. 10(1), pages 60-71, March.
    18. Al-Khazali, Osamah M. & Mirzaei, Ali, 2017. "The impact of oil price movements on bank non-performing loans: Global evidence from oil-exporting countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 193-208.
    19. Nigmonov, Asror & Shams, Syed & Alam, Khorshed, 2022. "Macroeconomic determinants of loan defaults: Evidence from the U.S. peer-to-peer lending market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    20. Md. Shahidul Islam & Shin-Ichi Nishiyama, 2017. "Is this adverse selection or something else to determine the non-performing loans? Dynamic panel evidence from South Asian countries," Discussion Papers 1723, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rbs:ijbrss:v:9:y:2020:i:5:p:235-244. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Umit Hacioglu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ssbffea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.