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¿Existe un tramo horizontal en la curva de Phillips? Perú 2005-2017

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Abstract

Se analiza si la existencia de un tramo relativamente horizontal en la curva de Phillips puede explicar una baja reacción de la inflación agregada. Se parte de un modelo lineal semi-estructural para las curvas de Phillips regionales, donde el parámetro asociado a la brecha del producto en la curva agregada está identificado a pesar de que las acciones compensatorias de política monetaria siguen una regla óptima. La versión no lineal de dicho modelo regional permite que la relación entre la inflación y la brecha del producto cambie de manera continua, según el rango de variación de la brecha del producto, pudiendo suceder que la curva de Phillips regional contenga un tramo relativamente horizontal. La evidencia empírica (i) no favorece la hipótesis de que el parámetro principal sea nulo en los modelos lineales y en el modelo no lineal que considera heterocedasticidad regional, y (ii) solo el modelo no lineal que asume homocedasticidad regional favorece la hipótesis de que existe de un tramo horizontal.

Suggested Citation

  • Barrera, Carlos, 2019. "¿Existe un tramo horizontal en la curva de Phillips? Perú 2005-2017," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 38, pages 61-80.
    • Handle: RePEc:rbp:esteco:ree-38-03
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    File URL: https://www.bcrp.gob.pe/docs/Publicaciones/Revista-Estudios-Economicos/38/ree-38-barrera.pdf
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    Keywords

    Política Monetaria Endógena; Estabilidad de la Curva de Phillips.;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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