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Cronología de los ciclos económicos en el Perú: 1992 a 2016

Author

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  • Winkelried, Diego

Abstract

Al aplicar avances recientes de la metodología “fechar luego agregar” a una base de datos de 145 indicadores mensuales de actividad económica peruana, este estudio ecuentra seis fases contractivas en el periodo de 1992 a 2016, con una duración acumulada de entre 75 y 80 meses (el 25 por ciento de un total de 300 meses), y cinco fases expansivas, con una duración acumulada de entre 220 y 225 meses (el 75 por ciento). Se propone, además, un índice de difusión que marca claramente el inicio y fin de cada una de estas fases.

Suggested Citation

  • Winkelried, Diego, 2017. "Cronología de los ciclos económicos en el Perú: 1992 a 2016," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 34, pages 55-76.
    • Handle: RePEc:rbp:esteco:ree-34-03
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    File URL: https://www.bcrp.gob.pe/docs/Publicaciones/Revista-Estudios-Economicos/34/ree-34-winkelried.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Brenda Guevara & Gabriel Rodríguez & Lorena Yamuca Salvatierra, 2024. "External Shocks and Economic Fluctuations in Peru: Empirical Evidence using Mixture Innovation TVP-VAR-SV Models," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2024-529, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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