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Reglas fiscales y la volatilidad del producto

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  • Montoro, Carlos
  • Moreno, Eduardo

Abstract

En este trabajo extendemos el modelo neoclásico de Baxter y King (1993) para evaluar los efectos sobre el ciclo económico de dos reglas fiscales alternativas. Las reglas que analizamos son similares a aquellas implementadas en la práctica por algunos países, tales como limites al déficit fiscal estructural (que elimina los efectos del ciclo económico sobre la recaudación) y limites al déficit fiscal convencional. Enfocamos nuestro análisis en un modelo calibrado para reproducir las características de la economía Peruana. En este modelo evaluamos los efectos sobre la dinámica de corto plazo y las condiciones para la estabilidad del equilibrio. Encontramos que la regla de déficit económico estructural produce una postura contracíclica de la política fiscal, lo cual reduce significativamente la volatilidad del producto. Asimismo, encontramos que una condición para que la regla estructural pueda ser implementada es que el gasto público no financiero reaccione en proporción mayor a uno sobre cambios en los gastos financieros. Clasificación JEL: E62, H30, H60

Suggested Citation

  • Montoro, Carlos & Moreno, Eduardo, 2008. "Reglas fiscales y la volatilidad del producto," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 15, pages 65-92.
    • Handle: RePEc:rbp:esteco:ree-15-04
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Winkelried, Diego, 2013. "Modelo de Proyección Trimestral del BCRP: Actualización y novedades," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 26, pages 9-60.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General

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