Forecasting The Tourism Activity – Risk Management Instrument

Until not so long ago, the evolution of different economical phenomena used to register a certain continuity, generated by the dynamic pulse magnitude, inertial to processes, reflected by increases and decreases, mainly characterized as being constant, linear and predictable for a specific period of time. In this situation, the managers were able to predict the future of the company with sufficient accuracy, based on one hand on intuition or experience, or, on the other hand, on the traditional methods for strategies substantiation and program elaboration. At present, the business environment, including tourism, is confronting with a series of major challenges, higher in number and amplitude, more profound and accelerated than ever,such as an increase of competitiveness and competition, amplification of globalization, and others,but also an increase of unpredictable shocks regarding the economic and financial crisis, socialpolitical crisis with negative impact on tourism activities. In this context, the forecasting activity becomes more and more difficult, unable to define future trends, as an effect of past evolutions. This forecasting activity has encompassed the role of detecting events that could influence the future of organizations, to issue warnings and alerts in case of negative events, to notify and exploit the opportunities in case of positive ones. Therefore, a complete picture of the company’s future can be accessible, by underlining the possible and desirable scenarios, taking into consideration not only the technical aspects but also the financial one. This study constitutes a plea for utilization of forecasting instruments and techniques, in order to have a more clear image over the company’s future trends and, as a result, the ability to take the best decisions.