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Modelo estadistico para defunciones y casos positivos de COVID-19 en Mexico

Author

Listed:
  • Gustavo Ramirez-Valverde

    (Colegio de Postgraduados, campus Montecillo)

  • Benito Ramirez-Valverde

    (Colegio de Postgraduados campus Puebla)

Abstract

Utilizar un modelo estadistico de las defunciones y casos positivos de COVID-19 en Mexico, para estudiar el comportamiento de la pandemia y contribuir a definir alternativas y politicas publicas que puedan mitigar el daño de la enfermedad en la sociedad. Se empleo la informacion oficial de la Secretaria de Salud respecto del numero de casos positivos de COVID-19 y del numero de defunciones causadas por esta enfermedad en Mexico. Las limitaciones del estudio son el reducido numero de datos y la posibilidad de fallas en la contabilidad de contagios y defunciones. Estima un modelo basado en los datos de la pandemia en Mexico y su aplicacion. El modelo seleccionado fue el de Gompertz con cuatro parametros. El modelo muestra un adecuado ajuste y su utilidad en la aplicacion en niveles regionales y futuros rebrotes de la enfermedad, para tomar medidas y elaborar politicas publicas que permitan aminorar el daño causado por la pandemia.

Suggested Citation

  • Gustavo Ramirez-Valverde & Benito Ramirez-Valverde, 2021. "Modelo estadistico para defunciones y casos positivos de COVID-19 en Mexico," EconoQuantum, Revista de Economia y Finanzas, Universidad de Guadalajara, Centro Universitario de Ciencias Economico Administrativas, Departamento de Metodos Cuantitativos y Maestria en Economia., vol. 18(1), pages 1-20, Enero-Jun.
    • Handle: RePEc:qua:journl:v:18:y:2021:i:1:p:1-20
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    File URL: https://econoquantum.cucea.udg.mx/index.php/EQ/article/view/7223/6733
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Modelo de Gompertz; salud publica; minimos cuadrados no lineales.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • I31 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - General Welfare, Well-Being
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs

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