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An empirical analysis for the US of the impact of federal budget deficits and the average effective personal income tax rate on the ex post real interest rate yield on ten-year Treasuries

Author

Listed:
  • Richard J. Cebula

    (Jacksonville University)

  • Robert Boylan

    (Jacksonville University)

Abstract

We investigate the impact of federal government budget deficits and federal personal income tax rates on the ex post real interest rate yield on ten-year US Treasury notes. Using autoregressive two-stage least squares estimations for the post-Bretton Woods era, we find that the yield on these Treasury issues has been an increasing function of the federal budget deficit as a percent of GDP, both in the form of the total/unified deficit and the primary deficit, and also an increasing function of the average effective federal personal income tax rate. The estimation reveals that growth in the M2 money supply (relative to GDP) acts to reduce the real interest rate yield on ten-year Treasuries. Consequently, while a growing money supply can help to keep real interest rates on Treasury notes (and hence federal debt service costs) down, policymakers should be sensitive to the fact that both budget deficit increases and tax rate increases can elevate the real interest rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard J. Cebula & Robert Boylan, 2019. "An empirical analysis for the US of the impact of federal budget deficits and the average effective personal income tax rate on the ex post real interest rate yield on ten-year Treasuries," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 72(288), pages 41-52.
    • Handle: RePEc:psl:pslqrr:2019:13
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. de Haan, Jakob & Sturm, Jan-Egbert, 2000. "On the relationship between economic freedom and economic growth," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 215-241, June.
    2. Richard J. Cebula & Joshua Hall & Franklin G. Mixon Jr & James E. Payne (ed.), 2015. "Economic Behavior, Economic Freedom, and Entrepreneurship," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 16557.
    3. Marc C. Chopin, 1998. "Does the Maturity Mix of Government Borrowing Impact Municipal Bond Rates?," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 19(1/2), pages 3-26, January.
    4. Thomas Laubach, 2009. "New Evidence on the Interest Rate Effects of Budget Deficits and Debt," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(4), pages 858-885, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Liu Kerry, 2023. "The Effects of Foreign Participation on Chinese Government Bond Yields," Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, Sciendo, vol. 23(2), pages 222-240, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    budget deficits; income tax rates; ex ante real interest rates; thirty-year Treasury bonds; monetary policy; open-economy loanable funds model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

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