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Prospects for the world economy

Author

Listed:
  • Paolo Sylos Labini

    (Università degli Studi di Roma, Facoltà di Scienze Statistiche, Demografiche e Attuariali, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche, Roma (Italy))

Abstract

Analysis here is founded on certain analogies with the Great Depression of the Thirties and four fundamental points: innovations, changes in the market forms, changes in income distribution and the sustainability of debts. The duration of prosperity depends first of all on the importance and variety of investment opportunities opened up by them, whereas crisis duration is conditioned by the size of indebtedness. The central problem in America today is precisely that of the sustainability of debts, to evaluate which criteria are studied in this paper. Full recovery will only be possible once past the stage in which firms and families contract debts primarily to repay other debts falling due and avoid bankruptcy. Proof that debts have fully reacquired the function of supporting growth will be given by the recovery of investments. In any case, the crisis is unlikely to reach the gravity of the Great Depression not only because a price fall is to excluded, but also because repetition of the mistakes in monetary policy are to be ruled out.

Suggested Citation

  • Paolo Sylos Labini, 2003. "Prospects for the world economy," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 56(226), pages 179-206.
    • Handle: RePEc:psl:bnlaqr:2003:31
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    File URL: http://ojs.uniroma1.it/index.php/PSLQuarterlyReview/article/view/9897/9779
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. U. Sacchetti, 1999. "Whither the US economy?," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 52(208), pages 69-94.
    2. James K. Galbraith, 2001. "The Meaning of a War Economy," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(6), pages 5-12.
    3. U. Sacchetti, 1999. "Whither the US economy?," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 52(208), pages 69-94.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Massimo FLORIO, 2012. "The real roots of the great recession: unsustainable income distribution," Departmental Working Papers 2012-01, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
    2. Emiliano Brancaccio & Raffaele Giammetti & Milena Lopreite & Michelangelo Puliga, 2023. "Convergence in solvency and capital centralization: A B‐VAR analysis for high‐income and euro area countries," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(1), pages 40-73, February.
    3. Alessandro Roncaglia, 2010. "Contributions on monetary and financial issues: an introduction," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 63(253), pages 99-102.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Debt; IMF; Lending;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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