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Débat sur les prévisions

Author

Listed:
  • Michel Didier
  • Philippe Sigogne
  • Jacky Fayolle
  • Françoise Milewski
  • Olivier Passet
  • Anton Brender
  • Jean-Paul Fitoussi

Abstract

Anton Brender : Je suis, pour l'essentiel, en accord avec les prévisions concernant la France, en particulier sur la reprise de l'investissement. Il y a par contre deux divergences : l'une sur le cours du dollar, qui continue de monter dans la prévision de l'OFCE l ; et l'autre sur le niveau des taux longs français, que j'entrevois proches de 6 % à l'horizon de la prévision, en tout cas supérieurs aux 5,5 % prévus par l'OFCE. Plus précisément sur le dollar : la question majeure est celle de savoir ce que veulent les autorités internationales ; depuis un an en effet, elles ont une grande influence sur le marché des changes. Au-delà de l'analyse des fondamentaux, on doit donc tenter de comprendre l'objectif des autorités. Mon intuition est que l'Allemagne et les Etats-Unis n'ont pas l'intention de laisser le dollar s'apprécier. Celui-ci devrait donc se stabiliser ou décliner. [Premier paragraphe]
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Michel Didier & Philippe Sigogne & Jacky Fayolle & Françoise Milewski & Olivier Passet & Anton Brender & Jean-Paul Fitoussi, 1997. "Débat sur les prévisions," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 63(1), pages 84-92.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:rvofce:ofce_0751-6614_1997_num_63_1_1475
    DOI: 10.3406/ofce.1997.1475
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ofce.1997.1475
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    File URL: https://doi.org/10.3406/ofce.1997.1475
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    Other versions of this item:

    • Christian De Boissieu & Hervé Monet & Valérie Chauvin & Olivier Passet & Henri Sterdyniak & Jean-Paul Fitoussi & Philippe Sigogne & Gérard Cornilleau & Catherine Mathieu, 1998. "Débat sur les prévisions," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 65(1), pages 115-123.

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