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Réunification allemande et croissance européenne : un espoir déçu ?

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  • Hélène Harasty
  • Jean Le Dem

Abstract

[eng] Two years after the breakdown of the Berlin wall, partners of Germany do not feel hopeful but desappointed. Growth was restricted to West Germany ; meanwhile, the rest of Europe went deeper and deeper into recession. Whose fault is it ? Not of reunification itself : immigrants flows to West and goods flows to East showed the expected impacts on activity, thanks to massive transferts quikly set up by Bonn in order to ease the integration of the five new Lander. The adopted policy-mix seems more responsible for the situation : more than impacts of growth, indirect tax increases taken to reduce public deficit fed up inflation and incited Bundesbank to react harder. The expectations of financial markets, which increased the long run interest rate and the exchange rate, were confirmed by this way. The historical simulations run with the MIMOSA model allow to measure the impact of these different shoks. German reunification did affect positively its partners in 1991, even if it was not obvious ; but this should diminish from 1992. [fre] Deux ans après la chute du mur de Berlin, l'espoir des partenaires européens de l'Allemagne fait place à la déception. La croissance est restée cantonnée outre-Rhin, alors que le reste de l'Europe s'enfonçait dans la récession. A qui la faute ? Pas à la réunification à proprement parler : l'afflux d'immigrés à l'Ouest et surtout les ventes de marchandises à l'Est ont eu les effets bénéfiques escomptés sur l'activité, grâce aux transferts massifs que Bonn a su rapidement mettre en place pour faciliter l'intégration des cinq nouveaux Lànder. La responsabilité tient plutôt à la politique économique adoptée : plus que les effets de la croissance, ce sont les hausses de fiscalité indirecte destinées à limiter le déficit public qui ont nourri l'inflation et provoqué le durcissement de la Bundesbank. Les marchés financiers ont donc vu leurs anticipations sur la hausse des taux d'intérêt et l'appréciation des monnaies européennes vis-à-vis du dollar confortées. Les simulations rétrospectives réalisées avec le modèle MIMOSA permettent de chiffrer l'impact de ces différents chocs. La réunification allemande a bien relancé les membres de la communauté et en particulier la France, mais cet effet positif passé inaperçu devrait s-atténuer en 1992.

Suggested Citation

  • Hélène Harasty & Jean Le Dem, 1992. "Réunification allemande et croissance européenne : un espoir déçu ?," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 39(1), pages 195-217.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:rvofce:ofce_0751-6614_1992_num_39_1_1265
    DOI: 10.3406/ofce.1992.1265
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ofce.1992.1265
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    1. Fisher, P G, et al, 1990. "Econometric Evaluation of the Exchange Rate in Models of the UK Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(403), pages 1230-1244, December.
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