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Offre, demande et compétitivité industrielle : les apports d'un modèle économétrique de déséquilibre intégrant des données d'enquêtes

Author

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  • Eric Bleuze
  • Véronique Leroux
  • Pierre-Alain Muet

Abstract

[eng] Supply, Demand and Industrial Competitiveness : A Disequilibrium Econometric Model, Integrating Survey Data Eric Bleuze, Véronique Leroux, Pierre-Alain Muet The integration of survey data in disequilibrium econometric models has been developed intensively during recent years. This enables the improvement of short term economic analysis, due to the coherent framework of disequilibrium theory on the one hand, and direct information on production bottlenecks provided by opinion surveys on the other. The estimation of such a model for the French industrial sector yields the following conclusion : when production capacity is insufficient to satisfy potential demand, equilibrium is restored mainly through a reduction of inventories and a rise of imports, and less significantly through a diminution of export, with no rationing of overall domestic demand. [fre] L'intégration des données d'enquêtes dans les modèles économétriques de déséquilibre s'est beaucoup développée ces dernières années. Elle permet d'enrichir l'analyse conjoncturelle en bénéficiant à la fois du cadre d'analyse cohérent de la théorie des équilibres avec rationnement et de l'information directe sur les goulots de production issue des enquêtes de conjoncture. L'estimation d'un modèle de ce type appliqué au secteur industriel français montre que, lorsque la capacité de production est insuffisante pour satisfaire la demande potentielle, le déséquilibre est résorbé principalement par une réduction des stocks et un accroissement des importations, plus marginalement par une réduction des exportations, tandis que la demande intérieure n'est jamais rationnée.

Suggested Citation

  • Eric Bleuze & Véronique Leroux & Pierre-Alain Muet, 1988. "Offre, demande et compétitivité industrielle : les apports d'un modèle économétrique de déséquilibre intégrant des données d'enquêtes," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 23(1), pages 175-191.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:rvofce:ofce_0751-6614_1988_num_23_1_1139
    DOI: 10.3406/ofce.1988.1139
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ofce.1988.1139
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    Cited by:

    1. Thierry Francq, 1990. "Le rôle des facteurs d'offre dans la baisse des performances à l'exportation : un bilan des années quatre-vingt," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 228(1), pages 11-18.
    2. Plassard, Romain & Renault, Matthieu, 2023. "General equilibrium models with rationing: The making of a ‘European specialty’," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).

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