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Les baisses de cotisations sociales ultramarines

Author

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  • Nicolas Bauduin
  • François Legendre
  • Yannick L’Horty

Abstract

[fre] Cet article propose une évaluation ex ante des effets sur l’emploi des dispositifs d’exonération de cotisations patronales de Sécurité sociale qui ont été mis en oeuvre dans les départements d’outre-mer. Nous utilisons une maquette théorique permettant de reproduire de façon stylisée la formation de l’emploi ultra-marin tout en distinguant plusieurs secteurs d’activité et plusieurs catégories de maind’oeuvre. La maquette est étalonnée sur chaque Dom à partir de distributions de salaires tirées des DADS et de données de comptabilité nationale. Près de 10 % des emplois seraient supprimés dans les Dom en cas d’alignement sur le régime métropolitain. Les effets seraient les plus massifs dans le secteur du tourisme qui perdrait 21 % de ses emplois. Ces ordres de grandeurs seraient assez proches dans les quatre Dom, avec un recul de l’emploi un peu plus marqué en Guyane et en Guadeloupe qu’en Martinique ou qu’à la Réunion. Une suppression pure et simple de tous les allègements de charge se traduirait quant à elle par un recul de l’ordre de 15 % des emplois, soit environ 44 000 emplois perdus dans les quatre Dom. [eng] The aim of this paper is to evaluate the employment effect of wage tax cuts in the four French departements d’outre mer (Guadeloupe, Guyana, La Reunion, Martinique). We are using an ad hoc theoretical model calibrated on administrative data sources. Our model distinguishes several skill levels and several area of activity. According to our simulations results, about 10 % of DOM employment could be suppressed if the French continental Legislation would be applied to the DOM. Main effects are in the Tourism sector with a 21 % employment decrease. These results are quite similar among the DOM, with an employment decrease more marked in Guyana and in Guadeloupe, rather than in La Reunion and Martinique. The suppression of all wage tax cuts would give a 15 % employment decrease, which means 44 000 employment suppressed in the four DOM.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicolas Bauduin & François Legendre & Yannick L’Horty, 2010. "Les baisses de cotisations sociales ultramarines," Revue Française d'Économie, Programme National Persée, vol. 24(3), pages 167-193.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:rfreco:rfeco_0769-0479_2010_num_24_3_1751
    DOI: 10.3406/rfeco.2010.1751
    Note: DOI:10.3406/rfeco.2010.1751
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    Cited by:

    1. Nadine Levratto & Aziza Garsaa & Luc Tessier, 2013. "To what extent do exemptions from social security contributions affect firm growth? New evidence using quantile estimations on panel data," Working Papers hal-00833049, HAL.
    2. Mathieu Bunel & Céline Emond & Yannick L’Horty, 2012. "Évaluer les réformes des exonérations générales de cotisations sociales," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(7), pages 57-103.
    3. Mathieu Bunel & Yannick L'Horty, 2011. "Les effets des aides publiques aux Hôtels Cafés Restaurants et leurs interactions," Working Papers halshs-00658460, HAL.
    4. Yannick L'Horty, 2014. "La persistance du chômage ultra-marin," Working Papers halshs-01100366, HAL.
    5. Aziza GARSAA & Nadine LEVRATTO & Luc TESSIER, 2015. "Do Exemptions From Social Security Contributions Affect Job Creation? New Empirical Evidence From French Overseas Regions," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 42, pages 79-104.
    6. Mathieu Bunel & Yannick L'Horty, 2011. "Les effets des aides publiques aux Hôtels Cafés Restaurants et leurs interactions : Une évaluation sur micro-données d'entreprises," Working Papers halshs-00744905, HAL.

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