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Existe-t-il vraiment une relation coïntégrante de demande de monnaie M3 en France ?

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  • Jean-François Goux

Abstract

[fre] L'objectif de cet article est de vérifier, dans le cas de la France, sur la période 1970-1995, avec des données trimestrielles, si l'existence d'une relation coïntégrante de demande de monnaie est une hypothèse acceptable et si l'évolution du système financier à partir de 1985 - point de départ de sa mutation -a pu entraîner une altération ou une amélioration de la forme et des qualités statistiques de cette fonction. La méthode employée est celle de la coïntégration multivariée et le modèle retenu est un VAR à correction d'erreur (VECM). Cela nous permet de déterminer la forme la plus pertinente pour la fonction de demande de monnaie et ensuite de l'estimer. Finalement, on peut conclure qu'il existe bien une relation coïntégrante de demande de monnaie M3, en France. [eng] Does a cointegrating M3 money demand relation really exist in France?. . The goal of this paper is to verify, in the french case, using 1970-1995 quarterly data, wether the possibility of a cointegrating money demand relation is an acceptable hypothesis and if the evolution of the financial system after 1985 - date of the start of its mutation - could involve a deterioration or an improvement of the structure and the goodness of fit of this function. The method is multivariate cointegration and the retained model is a vector error correction model (VECM). This allow us to determinate the most accurate pattern for the money demand function and after to estimate it. Finaly, we can conclude that a cointegrating M3 money demand relation really exist in France.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-François Goux, 2000. "Existe-t-il vraiment une relation coïntégrante de demande de monnaie M3 en France ?," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 51(4), pages 885-911.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_2000_num_51_4_410560
    DOI: 10.3406/reco.2000.410560
    Note: DOI:10.3406/reco.2000.410560
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    Cited by:

    1. Christian Bordes & Hélène Chevrou-Séverac & Velayoudom Marimoutou, 2001. "Une Europe monétaire à plusieurs vitesses ?. La demande de monnaie dans les grands pays de la zone euro (1979-1999)," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 147(1), pages 51-71.
    2. Lecarpentier-Moyal, Sylvie & Renou-Maissant, Patricia, 2007. "Analyse dynamique de la convergence des comportements de demande de monnaie en Europe," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 83(3), pages 321-357, septembre.
    3. Sylvie Lecarpentier-Moyal & Patricia Renou-Maissant, 2007. "Analyse dynamique de la convergence des comportements de demande de monnaie en Europe," Post-Print halshs-00256488, HAL.
    4. Christian Bordes & Hélène Chevrou-Séverac & Vêlayoudom Marimoutou, 2001. "Une Europe monétaire à plusieurs vitesses ? La demande de monnaie dans les grands pays de la zone euro (1979-1999)," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 147(1), pages 51-71.
    5. Talabong, Hervé, 2012. "Demande de monnaie en zone CEMAC : une modélisation par coïntégration avec ruptures structurelles," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 88(4), pages 429-458, Décembre.
    6. Avouyi-Dovi, S. & Diop, A. & Fonteny, E-C. & Gervais, E. & Jacquinot, P. & Mésonnier, J-S. & Sahuc, J-G., 2003. "Estimation d’une fonction de demande de monnaie pour la zone euro : une synthèse des résultats," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 111, pages 47-72.

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