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Quand la stabilisation dure... L'hypothèse d'une inflation inertielle en Europe centrale et orientale

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  • Wladimir Andreff
  • François Bourguignon

Abstract

[fre] Quand la stabilisation dure... L'hypothèse d'une inflation inertielle en Europe centrale et orientale. . Partant du constat que les économies en transition ne sont toujours pas stabilisées après quatre ans de politique de stabilisation, y compris pour ce qui est du rythme de l'inflation, le texte s'appuie sur une théorie inertielle de l'inflation qui permet d'expliquer la hausse des prix par un conflit entre groupes sociaux au sujet de la répartition du revenu national, s'exprimant par des comportements d'indexation de la part des salariés et des dirigeants des entreprises d'État (portant sur les dépenses d'investissement). Cette hypothèse est vérifiée par des corrélations calculées entre les prix de détail et les salaires réels, entre les prix et les dépenses d'investissement, et entre les salaires réels et l'investissement. [eng] Why stabilisation is lasting so far... the hypothesis of an inertial inflation in central eastern Europe. . The article relies on the empirical evidence according to which economies in transition are not yet definitely stabilized after a four year stabilisation policy, including when we consider only the rate of inflation. A theory of inertial inflation may explain such a fact as soon as priee increases are assumed to resuit from a conflict between social groups for the distribution of national income. Wage earners then react to priees in indexing their share, and the managers of State enterprises as well (indexing their investment capabili-ties). This hypothesis is successfully tested through the calculation of correlations between consumer priees and real wages, between priees and investment expenditures, and between wages and investment, for five Eastem European countries (1970-1992).

Suggested Citation

  • Wladimir Andreff & François Bourguignon, 1994. "Quand la stabilisation dure... L'hypothèse d'une inflation inertielle en Europe centrale et orientale," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 45(3), pages 819-832.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_1994_num_45_3_409572
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    Cited by:

    1. Régis Chavigny, 1997. "Économies en transition et économies en développement : une comparaison," Revue Tiers Monde, Programme National Persée, vol. 38(152), pages 727-751.
    2. Balàzs Égert, 2001. "Exchange Rate Regime and Disinflation in the Transition: the Experience of the Pre-announced Crawling Peg in Hungary," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 6(1), pages 361-379.
    3. Balàzs Égert, 2001. "Régime de change et désinflation dans la transition : l'expérience du système de parité à crémaillère pré-annoncée en Hongrie," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 6(1), pages 399-418.

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