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Contrôle des changes et risque politique : une étude économétrique des cas français et suisse

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  • Pieter Van Tiel
  • Henri Loubergé

Abstract

[eng] Capital flows controls and political risk : an econometric study of the swiss and french cases. . We know, since the work of Aliber [1973] that the observed difference between the domestic and the Euromarket intevest rates for a money cornes from two sources : institutional factors (like the control of the capital flows) and political risk (particularly the risk of a stronger control). This article, with a method suggested by Dooley and Isard [1980]) tries to explain the observed difference between the domestic and the Euromarket interest rate for two european currencies : the Swiss Franc and the French Franc. The case of France has been choosen for his old control of capital flows, which is frequently reinforced or relaxed. Switzerland, traditionnaly free of controls, has been choosen as the reference-country. The results corroborate that the interest rate differential for the french franc is largely explained by the existing controls and the risk of new controls. They also verify the absence of political risk in Switzerland. [fre] Contrôle des changes et risque politique : une étude économétrique des cas français et suisse. . On sait depuis Aliber [1973] que le différentiel d'intérêt observé, pour une monnaie, entre le marché domestique et le marché euro de cette monnaie peut être attribué à deux sources : des facteurs institutionnels (notamment le contrôle des changes), et le risque politique (notamment le risque de renforcement du contrôle des changes). Cet article reprend une méthode proposée par Dooley et Isard [1980] pour essayer d'expliquer les différentiels d'intérêt observés sur les marchés domestiques et euro de deux monnaies européen­nes : le franc suisse et le franc français. Le cas de la France a été choisi pour son contrôle des changes déjà ancien, mais faisant l'objet de fréquents renforcements et assouplissements. La Suisse, traditionnellement exempte de contrôle des changes, a été choisie comme pays témoin. Les résultats confirment que le différentiel d'intérêt observé pour le franc français s'explique largement par les contrôles en place et par le risque d'apparition de nouveaux contrôles. Ils permettent également de vérifier qu'il n'existe pas, semble-t-il, de risque politique dans le cas de la Suisse.

Suggested Citation

  • Pieter Van Tiel & Henri Loubergé, 1988. "Contrôle des changes et risque politique : une étude économétrique des cas français et suisse," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 39(5), pages 951-972.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_1988_num_39_5_409108
    DOI: 10.3406/reco.1988.409108
    Note: DOI:10.3406/reco.1988.409108
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stephen J Kobrin, 1979. "Political Risk: A Review and Reconsideration," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 10(1), pages 67-80, March.
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    3. Adler, Michael & Dumas, Bernard, 1983. "International Portfolio Choice and Corporation Finance: A Synthesis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(3), pages 925-984, June.
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