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L'effet d'irréversibilité dans le choix de grands projets

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  • Xavier Freixas

Abstract

[eng] The irreversibility effect in the choice among large projects. . The irreversibility effect, as stated by Arrow and Fisher, on the one hand, and Henry on the other hand, has shown that taking into account the effect of the future information may change the present optimal choice whenever that choice is irreversible. We consider here a somewhat different framework, in which the different projects can only be implemented sequentially, a feature that is characteristic of large projects. Since the present choice has an effect on the pattern of returns of the future projects, the decision is akin to an irreversible one. We define here an opportunity cost for each project as the one associated with the loss in the value of information that is generated by implementing the project ; then we establish the existence of an irreversibility effect in this framework. [fre] L'effet d'irréversibilité dans le choix de grands projets. . L'effet d'irréversibilité, mis en évidence par Arrow et Fischer, d'une part, et par Henry, d'autre part, a établi l'importance de la prise en compte de l'information dans le choix des investissements lorsque la décision à prendre concerne la destruction ou la conservation d'un actif irremplaçable. Nous considérons ici un contexte différent, dans lequel les différents projets ne peuvent être réalisés que successivement, ce qui est caractéristique des grands projets. Une forme d'irréversibilité apparaît alors, puisque la décision actuelle affecte la rentabilité des projets ultérieurement réalisés. Le présent article étudie l'effet d'irréversibilité en définissant un coût d'opportunité pour chaque projet d'investissement qui correspond à la perte en termes de valeur de l'information associée à la réalisation du projet, et établit l'existence de l'effet d'irréversibilité dans ce contexte.

Suggested Citation

  • Xavier Freixas, 1987. "L'effet d'irréversibilité dans le choix de grands projets," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 38(1), pages 149-156.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_1987_num_38_1_408972
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    1. Kenneth J. Arrow & Anthony C. Fisher, 1974. "Environmental Preservation, Uncertainty, and Irreversibility," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Chennat Gopalakrishnan (ed.), Classic Papers in Natural Resource Economics, chapter 4, pages 76-84, Palgrave Macmillan.
    2. Claude Henry, 1974. "Option Values in the Economics of Irreplaceable Assets," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 41(5), pages 89-104.
    3. Claude Henry, 1974. "Investment decisions under uncertainty: The "irreversibility effect"," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/327343, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    4. Robert A. Jones & Joseph M. Ostroy, 1984. "Flexibility and Uncertainty," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 51(1), pages 13-32.
    5. Henry, Claude, 1974. "Investment Decisions Under Uncertainty: The "Irreversibility Effect."," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 64(6), pages 1006-1012, December.
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    1. Laurent Denant-Boèmont & Sabrina Hammiche, 2000. "Gains d'information du décideur public et valeur d'option des grands projets d'infrastructure," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 143(2), pages 139-153.
    2. Alexandra Rauchs & Marc Willinger, 1996. "Expérimentations sur les choix séquentiels : application à " l'effet irréversibilité"," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 47(1), pages 51-71.
    3. Jean-Michel Josselin, 1997. "Irréversibilité et financement des infrastructures par les fonds propres," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 48(2), pages 247-256.
    4. Tapiero, Charles S., 2005. "Value at risk and inventory control," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 163(3), pages 769-775, June.

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