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La désinflation 1982-1985 : une analyse variantielle

Author

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  • Pierre Sicsic
  • Alain Minczeles

Abstract

[fre] La désinflation en France : 1982-1985 . . L'article analyse les différentes causes du ralentissement clés prix intervenus entre 1982 et 1985. Pour ce faire on construit un modèle décrivant la boucle prix-salaires : le prix de la valeur ajoutée dépend des coûts salariaux et les entreprises sont contraintes par le prix des importations : le taux de salaire est indexé sur les prix de consommation. On adjoint à ce modèle des équations de prix du commerce extérieur.. L'analyse de la désinflation est menée à partir d'un scénario tendanciel qui est construit en reprenant, entre 1982 et 1985, les déterminants de l'inflation de 1982. Par une succession de variantes élémentaires qui permettent de quantifier les différentes sources de variations de prix, on passe du scénario tendanciel aux valeurs observées.. On montre ainsi que la désindexation des salaires et l'évolution des prix agricoles jouent un rôle primordial en 1984, tandis que l'influence du taux de change semble être prédominante en 1983 et 1985. [eng] Disinflation in france - 1982-1985 . . This article deals with the different causes of the slowdown of inflation that took place front 1982 to 1985. For this purpose, a model has heen used which describes the wage-price spiral : the G.D.P. deflator depends on labor costs and firms are constrained by import prices ; the wage rate is indexed to consumption prices. Export and import prices equations are added to this model.. A trend scenario., which is based on the assumption that the causes of the 1982 inflation still work for the 1983-1985 period, is used to analysing the disinflation process. Through a succession of elenientanj variants, that allow for a quantification of the impact of the varions sources of inflation, the gap between the trend scenario and the actual values is bridged.. Thus, the phasing out of wage indexation and the evolution of agricultiiral prices appear to play a primordial part in 1984 while the influence of the exchange rate seems to be predominant in 1983 and 1985.

Suggested Citation

  • Pierre Sicsic & Alain Minczeles, 1986. "La désinflation 1982-1985 : une analyse variantielle," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 37(6), pages 1127-1146.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_1986_num_37_6_408959
    DOI: 10.3406/reco.1986.408959
    Note: DOI:10.3406/reco.1986.408959
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