Le déficit pétrolier et la balance commerciale : France-Allemagne

[fre] The oil deficit and the trade balance a study of France and Germany. The quadrupling of the price of oil and the recession which ensued had markedly different effects on the trade balance of France and Germany between 1973 and 1978. Germany registered a surprising increase in its trade surplus in 1974. During subsequent years, as the recession deepened, this initial advantage was dissipated. In France, the oil crisis threw the current account into a deep deficit, from which it did not recover until five years later If anything the recession helped to reduce the deficit rather than aggravate it At the end of the period France and Germany found themselves nonetheless in comparable circumstances having compensated for the quadrupling of their oil deficits with expansions of their manufacturing surpluses due largely to the inflation of industrial prices This paper presents comparative analysis of the movements of the trade balance in the two countries between 1971 and 1978 based on simulations of the foreign- trade blocs of two quarterly macroeconometric models the METRIC model for France and the SYSIFO model for Germany Revue économique 31 2) mars 1980 pp 287-312 [eng] it did not recover until five years later. If anything, the recession helped to reduce the deficit rather than aggravate it. At the end of the period, France and Germany found themselves, nonetheless, in comparable circumstances, having compensated for the quadrupling of their oil deficits with expansions of their manufacturing surpluses due largely to the inflation of industrial prices.. This paper presents a comparative analysis of the movements of the trade balance in the two countries between 1971 and 1978 based on simulations of the foreign-trade blocs of two quarterly macroeconometric models : the METRIC model for France and the SYSIFO model for Germany.