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Effets de la crise sur les pays de l'Est

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  • Richard Portes

Abstract

[eng] Eastern Europe played little role in the eventa leading to the world economic crisis of the 1970s, but the centrally planned economics (CEPs) could not isolate themselves fully from the consequent disturbances in world commodity and capital markets. We first present a theoretical framework for analysis of macroeconomic adjustment by CEPs to external disturbances. We then net ont the impacts of the crisis on the CPEs (terms of trade, demand conditions, opportunities for hard currency borrowing) and the responses of Eaat European policy-makers. We find that there was very little internal reaction until 1976, so that the only initial effects were on trade balances and external delit. Since then, despite plans to limit the growth of absorption relative to output, little adjustment has been achieved. Conversely, the crisis itself has had relatively little effect on domestic prices, employment and output in the CPEs. The external disequilibria of these economics are due primarily to internal causes, and. their unrestricted access to hard currency loans has in some cases permitted them to continue macroeconomic and structural policies which may not he viable in the long run. [fre] L'Europe de l'Est n'a joué qu'un faible rôle dans les événements menant à la crise économique mondiale des années 1970, mais les économies à planification centra­lisée (EPC) ne pouvaient pas s'isoler complètement des chocs résultant sur les marchés mondiaux des biens et du capital. Nous présentons d'abord un cadre théorique pour l'analyse de l'ajustement macroéconomique des EPC aux perturba­tions extérieures. Nous énumérons alors les impacts de la crise sur les EPC (termes de l'échange, conditions de la demande, possibilités d'emprunt en devises fortes) et les réactions des planificateurs de l'Europe de l'Est. Nous découvrons qu'il y a eu très peu de réactions intérieures jusqu'en 1976, de sorte que les seuls effets initiaux se manifestèrent sur les balances commerciales et les dettes extérieures. Depuis, malgré les plans pour limiter la croissance de l'absorption par rapport à celle de la production, l'ajustement réalisé a été peu important. Inversement, la crise elle-même a eu relativement peu d'effets sur les prix intérieurs, l'emploi ou la production dans les EPC. Les déséquilibres extérieurs de ces économies sont dus avant tout à des causes intérieures, et leur accès sans restrictions à des prêts en devises fortes leur a, dans certains cas, permis de continuer des politiques macroéconomiques et structurelles qui pourraient s'avérer non viables à long terme.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard Portes, 1979. "Effets de la crise sur les pays de l'Est," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 30(6), pages 1067-1114.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_1979_num_30_6_408501
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    1. repec:bla:econom:v:44:y:1977:i:174:p:109-29 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. John Burkett & Richard Portes & David Winter, 1981. "Macroeconomic Adjustment and Foreign Trade of Centrally Planned Economies," NBER Working Papers 0736, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. John Burkett & Richard Portes & David Winter, 1981. "Macroeconomic Adjustment and Foreign Trade of Centrally Planned Economies," NBER Working Papers 0736, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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