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Trois pays émergents dans la crise : Indonésie, Russie, Turquie

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  • François-Xavier Bellocq
  • Yves Zlotowski

Abstract

[fre] Les chocs d’activité et les réponses des politiques économiques suite à la crise de 2008-2009 sont comparés pour trois pays : Indonésie, Turquie et Russie. L’impact de la crise sur l’activité à court terme a été notable mais disparate selon les cas. Son ampleur dépend des équilibres macro-financiers initiaux et du mode de croissance dans la période du boom précédent. La sortie de crise et le régime de croissance à long terme sont tributaires d’une part de la solidité du système financier et d’autre part des progrès enregistrés en matière de spécialisation. Quant à la politique économique, les pays semblent bien mieux outillés qu’il y a dix ans : les importantes réserves accumulées et des États désendettés ont constitué autant d’atouts face au choc de liquidité post-Lehman. Dans les trois cas, les années 2000 ont été l’occasion d’un renforcement institutionnel de l’État. Ainsi les gouvernements se sont avérés plutôt mobilisés et efficaces dans la gestion de la crise. . Classification JEL : E3, E6, F3. [eng] Three emerging countries facing the crisis : Indonesia, Russia, Turkey . The growth shock and macro-policy responses after the 2008-09 crisis are compared in the cases of Indonesia, Russia and Turkey. Short-term growth in the three countries has been impacted. Nevertheless, the magnitude of the shock varies and depends on the initial macro-financial imbalances and on the growth regime prior to the shock. The post-crisis rebound and the long term growth scenario depend on the one hand on the strength of the financial system and on the other hand on the dynamic of the economic specialisation seen in the last period. As for macroeconomic policy, the three countries seem much better equipped than ten years ago : accumulated foreign exchange reserves and less indebted governments have helped to deal with the post Lehman liquidity crunch. In the three economies, state and public institutions have generally been strengthened during the years 2000. Hence governments proved to be rather mobilised and efficient in their management of the crisis. . Classification JEL : E3, E6, F3.

Suggested Citation

  • François-Xavier Bellocq & Yves Zlotowski, 2009. "Trois pays émergents dans la crise : Indonésie, Russie, Turquie," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 95(2), pages 243-258.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:recofi:ecofi_0987-3368_2009_num_95_2_5356
    DOI: 10.3406/ecofi.2009.5356
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecofi.2009.5356
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance

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