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Les flexions des taux d'activité sont-elles seulement conjoncturelles ?

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  • Alain Jacquot

Abstract

[fre] Les flexions des taux d'activité sont-elles seulement conjoncturelles ? . par Alain Jacquot . L'analyse macro-économique de l'offre de travail met traditionnellement en évidence des flexions conjoncturelles des taux d'activité, c'est-à-dire une sensibilité des taux d'activité au cours du cycle face aux variations (conjoncturelles) du chômage. Les résultats économétriques de cet article laissent penser que les taux d'activité présentent également une sensibilité de long terme par rapport aux inflexions (durables) du taux de chômage. L'offre de travail pourrait de ce fait à l'avenir croître davantage que ne le supposent les projections tendancielles de population active, si le taux de chômage d'équilibre venait à baisser, ou même simplement se stabiliser. [eng] Are Changes in Activity Rates Solely Short Run? by Alain Jacquot . A macroeconomic analysis of the labour supply typically finds short-run changes in activity rates, i.e. activity rates sensitive to (short-run) variations in unemployment during the cycle. The econometric conclusions of this article suggest that activity rates are also sensitive in the long run to (lasting) changes in the unemployment rate. The labour supply could consequently increase more in the future than inferred by the working population trend forecasts if the equilibrium unemployment rate were to fall or even simply stabilise.

Suggested Citation

  • Alain Jacquot, 1997. "Les flexions des taux d'activité sont-elles seulement conjoncturelles ?," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 127(1), pages 137-155.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_1997_num_127_1_5841
    DOI: 10.3406/ecop.1997.5841
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.1997.5841
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    Cited by:

    1. Emmanuelle Nauze-Fichet, 2002. "Projections de population active en 2050 : l'essoufflement de la croissance des ressources en main-d'oeuvre," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 355(1), pages 73-104.
    2. Élisabeth Algava & Mathieu Plane, 2001. "Vieillissement et protection sociale. Comparaison de six pays de l'Union Européenne," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 79(4), pages 261-314.
    3. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/2245 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Valérie Chauvin & Mathieu Plane, 2001. "2000-2040 : population active et croissance," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 79(4), pages 235-259.
    5. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/2245 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Pauline Givord, 2002. "Prévoir l'évolution des taux d'activité aux âges élevés : un exercice difficile," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 355(1), pages 105-121.
    7. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/2246 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/2246 is not listed on IDEAS

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