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Le modèle multinational Atlas deuxième partie : le commerce international

Author

Listed:
  • Hervé Boniface
  • François Cellier
  • Olivier Davanne
  • Ronan le Berre
  • Michèle Mansuy

Abstract

[eng] The Multinational model Atlas. . Part two: international trade, . by Hervé Boniface, François Cellier, Olivier Davanne, . Ronan Le Berre, Michèle Mansuy. . The multinational model Atlas, developed at the "Direction de la prévision " (*). has been in use since Autumn 1 982 for forecasts and studies dealing with the international environment of France. It is made up of models for the nine major Oecd states described in issue 62 of "Economie et Prévision", linked by a trade model including a simplified representation of the other countries and areas of the world and to which this issue is dedicated. . The introductory description of the trade model and the main choices which went into designing it is followed by two sections on bilateral prices and market shares. Original features have been added to the usual models with a view to enhancing their explanatory value without detracting from the coherence of the system. This is done by determining bilateral coefficients for each trade flow to show the behaviour of the countries of origin and of destination. . A fourth chapter considers the subject of non petroleum imports. The various standard formulae were examined and a solution adopted which takes into account not only the effects of prices but also the range of lo weights of imports in the différents components of demand. The study led to the discarding of the capacity utilization rate variable since its effect on imports was not significant for most of the countries considered. The brunt of the effects of the economic cycle on demand for imported products seems to be attributable to stocks. . The model for petroleum trade flows —(petroleum is separate from other goods in the Atlas model)— is the subject of chapter five, which stresses the peculiar logic which governs this sector, imports being determined as the difference between consumption and exportations which themselves depend on the world oil market and production. The results obtained by studying different types of models for consumption are extensively developed in order to explain the choices which were made. . The final section concludes with an eleven-year simulation of the complete model, illustrating how it fits the sample period (1967-1979) and beyond, how it works right up to 1982. . (•) Economic Forecasting Services — Ministry of Finance. [fre] Le modèle multinational Atlas deuxième partie : le modèle de commerce, . par Hervé Boniface, François Cellier, Olivier Davanne, Ronan Le Berre, Michèle Mansuy. . Le modèle multinational Atlas, construit à la Direction de la prévision, est utilisé depuis l'automne 1 982 pour la réalisation de projections et études sur l'environnement international de la France. Il est constitué de modèles des neuf principaux pays de l'Ocdé, décrits dans le numéro 62 d'Economie et Prévision et d'un modèle des échanges multilatéraux comportant une représentation simplifiée des autres pays et zones du monde auquel est consacré le présent numéro. . Après une présentation introductivede la structure du modèle de commerce et des principaux choix de spécifications, les deuxième et troisième parties de l'article sont consacrées au traitement des prix bilatéraux et des parts de marché où des solutions novatrices ont été apportées aux modèles usuels afin d'améliorer leur pouvoir explicatif tout en préservant les propriétés de cohérence du système. Ce résultat est atteint par la détermination de coefficients bilatéraux représentatifs pour chaque flux des comportements des pays d'origine et de destination. . Le quatrième chapitre aborde la modélisation des importations hors-pétrole, pour lesquelles plusieurs formulations standard ont été estimées, le choix se portant sur une relation faisant intervenir, outre les effets prix, les différences de contenu en importation de chaque poste de la demande. L'étude a conduit à écarter la variable de tension sur les capacités, dont l'influence sur les importations n'a pu être établie avec certitude dans la majorité des pays, l'essentiel des effets du cycle économique sur la demande de produits importés semblant pouvoir être imputé au rôle des stocks. . La représentation des flux pétroliers mondiaux, isolés du reste des marchandises dans Atlas, fait l'objet du cinquième chapitre. Il y est insisté sur la logique particulière du fonctionnement de ce bloc où les importations sont déterminées par solde à partir du calcul d.es consommations et des exportations, fonction elles-mêmes du marché pétrolier mondial et de la donnée des productions. De nombreux développements sont consacrés aux résultats de l'étude de différentes formes de relations de consommation de pétrole, afin d'éclairer les choix effectués. . La dernière partie conclut par une simulation sur onze ans du modèle complet illustrant ses performances satisfaisantes sur la période d'estimation des relations et au-delà jusqu'à l'année 1982.

Suggested Citation

  • Hervé Boniface & François Cellier & Olivier Davanne & Ronan le Berre & Michèle Mansuy, 1984. "Le modèle multinational Atlas deuxième partie : le commerce international," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 64(3), pages 3-64.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_1984_num_64_3_3330
    DOI: 10.3406/ecop.1984.3330
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.1984.3330
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