Analysing the Impacts of Shadow Economy, Financial Inclusion and Economic Policy Uncertainty on CO2 Emissions

The effects of the shadow economy on the environment have been amply documented in the literature; however, the relevance of financial inclusion and the unpredictability of economic policy are still up for debate. Therefore, this study examines the diverse effects of financial inclusion, shadow economies and economic policy on carbon emissions in 21 Sub-Saharan African countries from 2002 to 2019. To determine whether this hypothesis is true, this study uses the panel spatial correlation consistent (PSCC), method of moments quantile regression (MM-QR) and Dumitrescu-Hurlin (D-H) (2012) methodologies. The findings of the PSCC show that financial inclusion increases carbon emissions in SSA countries but the shadow economy and economic policy uncertainty have an adverse impact on emissions. Using the MM-QR estimation with fixed effects, the same results are obtained across all quantiles after accounting for the effects of the shadow economy and economic policy uncertainty over the conditional distribution of CO2. The effect of financial inclusion on CO2 emissions is positive, but only statistically significant at the 30th to 70th quantiles until traces of significance are erased. In addition, there is evidence of a two-way causal relationship between the shadow economy and CO2 emissions, financial inclusion and the shadow economy, urban population and CO2 emissions, renewable energy use and economic policy uncertainty, trade liberalisation and economic policy uncertainty, and financial inclusion and economic policy uncertainty. The empirical results of this study offer insightful policy suggestions to counteract the direct impact of financial inclusion and to amplify the damaging effects of the shadow economy and economic policy uncertainty on carbon emissions.