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Využití metody peněžního převisu/deficitu k indikaci inflačních rizik (přístup Evropské centrální banky)
[Implementation of monetary overhang/shortfall measure for indication of inflation risks (the approach of the European Central Bank)]

Author

Listed:
  • Josef Arlt
  • Milan Guba
  • Štěpán Radkovský

Abstract

The ECB concept of analysis of deviation of actual money stock development from its long run equilibrium development is based on the assumption that bigger deviation signalizes risks for the price stability. The ECB considers three measures of this deviation: nominal money gap, real money gap and monetary overhang/shortfall. The calculation of gap between the actual and the equilibrium development of money stock in nominal and real expression is not reasonable at the present time in Czech Republic. The calculation of monetary overhang/shortfall, which is based on the long run equilibrium value of money stock given by model of money demand, seems to be more employable.

Suggested Citation

  • Josef Arlt & Milan Guba & Štěpán Radkovský, 2004. "Využití metody peněžního převisu/deficitu k indikaci inflačních rizik (přístup Evropské centrální banky) [Implementation of monetary overhang/shortfall measure for indication of inflation risks (th," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2004(2).
    • Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2004:y:2004:i:2:id:456
    DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.456
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation; money demand; cointegration; monetary overhang/shortfall;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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