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Price Efficiency, Bubbles, Crashes and Crash Risk: Evidence from Chinese Stock Market

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  • Muhammad Usman

Abstract

When there is bad news hoarding from managers, returns of stocks are no longer efficient. We hypothesize that a proxy for efficient returns predicts stock price bubbles, crashes and crash risk. We find evidence in support of our hypotheses. Lagged price efficiency significantly predicts bubbles, crashes and crash risk in multivariate linear regressions and logit regressions, as predicted by our hypotheses. We also find that the lagged probability of bubbles is only correlated with future returns. In contrast, the lagged probability of crashes is correlated with both future returns and fundamental values of stocks. This result validates our explanation for the formation of bubbles and crashes. Finally, the out-of-sample accuracy ratio of our bubble and the crash prediction model is higher than in previous studies. Our results provide alternative explanations of the mechanics of stock price bubbles and crashes and are helpful for academicians, investors and policymakers.

Suggested Citation

  • Muhammad Usman, 2022. "Price Efficiency, Bubbles, Crashes and Crash Risk: Evidence from Chinese Stock Market," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2022(3-4), pages 236-258.
    • Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpep:v:2022:y:2022:i:3-4:id:804:p:236-258
    DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.804
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock price crash risk; bubbles; crashes; price efficiency; bad news hoarding;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • P22 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Prices

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