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Impacts of Global-Economic-Policy Uncertainty on Emerging Stock Market: Evidence from Linear and Non-Linear Models

Author

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  • Mohammad Enamul Hoque
  • Mohd Azlan Shah Zaidi

Abstract

Global economic policy uncertainty (GEPU) is one of important phenomena in the global economy; it can impact on the overall economic performance and stock market per-formance, regardless of the status of the world economy. Thus, this paper empirically investigates the impact of global economic policy uncertainty on the Malaysian stock market over the period from 10:2003 to 2017:03. Using the GARCH model, the study demonstrates that global policy uncertainty affects the Malaysian stock market negatively. Similarly, the SVAR model also shows results consistent with the GARCH estimation. Nevertheless, the Markov switching estimation uncovers that global policy uncertainty has negative impacts on stock market performance in both low and high volatile market states. The impact is, however, greater during the high volatile state. Hence, the relationship between global economic policy uncertainty and stock market returns tends to be asymmetric. The overall empirical results infer that global economic policy uncertainty has some implications for asset pricing.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohammad Enamul Hoque & Mohd Azlan Shah Zaidi, 2020. "Impacts of Global-Economic-Policy Uncertainty on Emerging Stock Market: Evidence from Linear and Non-Linear Models," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2020(1), pages 53-66.
    • Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpep:v:2020:y:2020:i:1:id:725:p:1-12
    DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.725
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mamman, Suleiman O. & Wang, Zhanqin & Iliyasu, Jamilu, 2023. "Commonality in BRICS stock markets’ reaction to global economic policy uncertainty: Evidence from a panel GARCH model with cross sectional dependence," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PA).
    2. Joseph Chukwudi Odionye & Ethelbert Ukachukwu Ojiaku & Ndubuisi Agoh & Chikeziem F. Okorontah & Roy M. Okpara & Callistus Ogu, 2024. "Economic policy uncertainty and equity index in sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries: accounting for multiple structural breaks in a panel framework," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 4(6), pages 1-30, June.
    3. Mohammad Enamul Hoque & Soo-Wah Low & Mohd Azlan Shah Zaidi, 2020. "The Effects of Oil and Gas Risk Factors on Malaysian Oil and Gas Stock Returns: Do They Vary?," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-22, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Global economic policy uncertainty; GARCH; Markov switching; Malaysia; stock market;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F50 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - General
    • F65 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Finance
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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