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Causality Illusion and Overconfidence in Predicting (Quasi)Stochastic Financial Events
[Iluze kauzality a nadměrná důvěra ve schopnost predikce (kvazi)náhodných finančních událostí]

Author

Listed:
  • Petr Houdek
  • Petr Koblovský
  • Jan Plaček
  • Luboš Smrčka

Abstract

We argue that individuals systematically interpret sequences of events in a causal manner. The aim of this article is to show that people do so even if they are aware of the stochastic nature of the respective sequence. The bias can explain some anomalous behaviour of investors in financial markets. Small as well as professional investors may illusorily perceive causality of former random success and future yield. Laboratory experiments testing the interpretation of stochastically occurring events in financial designs as well as analyses of real trading data from financial markets confirm that investors indeed interpret (quasi)random events casually; they make incorrect predictions and they egocentrically allocate responsibility for their success. The causality illusion induces overconfidence, inefficient investment and risk seeking. In the conclusion, we discuss factors that may limit effects of the causality illusion and suggest future areas for research.

Suggested Citation

  • Petr Houdek & Petr Koblovský & Jan Plaček & Luboš Smrčka, 2017. "Causality Illusion and Overconfidence in Predicting (Quasi)Stochastic Financial Events [Iluze kauzality a nadměrná důvěra ve schopnost predikce (kvazi)náhodných finančních událostí]," Acta Oeconomica Pragensia, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2017(1), pages 51-63.
    • Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlaop:v:2017:y:2017:i:1:id:568:p:51-63
    DOI: 10.18267/j.aop.568
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Camerer, Colin F, 1989. "Does the Basketball Market Believe in the 'Hot Hand'?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(5), pages 1257-1261, December.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    stochasticity; illusive causality; hot hand; risk taking; overconfidence; self-attribution;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • G02 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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