Development of a predictive model for vitamin D deficiency based on the vitamin D status in young Japanese women: A study protocol

Background: Vitamin D deficiency (VDD) is associated with an increased risk for lifestyle-related diseases. In Japan, VDD is quite prevalent in all age groups, with its high risk in young women. Furthermore, its association during pregnancy with gestational hypertension and low birth weight has also been reported. VDD can be diagnosed by serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] levels, which, however, is not suited for screening. Therefore, we will create a predictive model for serum 25(OH)D concentration and prevalence of VDD based on such data as region, sun exposure habit, and vitamin D intake in young women. Methods: From 2020 to 2022, we conduct a cross-sectional study of 600 young women in four regions of Japan, identify the indices associated with serum 25(OH)D concentrations such as sun exposure habits, habitual vitamin D intake, ultraviolet-B irradiation, seasons (summer and winter) and latitude, and construct prediction models for serum 25(OH)D concentrations and VDD risk. This study has been registered with UMIN-CTR (ID: UMIN000041527). Results: One hundred and fifteen subjects have been collected from 6 institutions in winter as of May 2021. When data from more than 200 subjects have become available, we will conduct the interim analysis, summarize the data by region and facility, review the inclusion criteria for analysis, and check for missing values and outliers. Prediction models for serum 25(OH)D concentration and VDD will be determined in the final analysis when all cases have been collected. Conclusions: A screening tool for VDD risk to be developed in our study based on the predictive model would help the public and medical professionals prevent lifestyle-related diseases through improving VDD. Additionally, the results may serve as the scientific basis for determining the appropriate vitamin D intake and sun exposure standards.