Projections of the economic burden of care for individuals with dementia in mainland China from 2010 to 2050

Background: China has stepped into an era of aging society, where the impending considerable economic burden attributed to high prevalence of dementia in the elderly appears to be one of the most important health and social issues to deal with for the country. However, population-based quantification and projections for the economic burden of dementia in China are lacking for further health action and policy making. Objective: To estimate and predict the costs of managing dementia in the elderly population aged 60 and above from 2010 to 2050 in China. Methods: Data were collected from a six-province study (n = 7072) and other multiple sources for calculation of the economic burden of dementia. With the convincing data from published studies, we quantified and projected the costs attributed to dementia in China from 2010 to 2050. Results: The national cost of dementia in 2010 was estimated to be US$22.8 billion by the opportunity cost method and US$26.4 billion by the proxy method. In 2050, the costs would increase to US$372.3 billion by the opportunity cost method and US$430.6 billion by the proxy method, consuming 0.53% and 0.61% of China’s total GDP, respectively. A series of sensitivity analyses showed that the changes in the proportions of informal caregiving led to the most robust changes in the total burden of care for dementia in China. Conclusion: Dementia represents an enormous burden on China’s population health and economy. Due to the changes in policies and population structure, policymakers should give priority to dementia care.