The impact of cardiopulmonary exercise-derived scoring on prediction of cardio-cerebral outcome in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy

Background: Sudden cardiac death (SCD) and stroke-related events accompanied by atrial fibrillation (AF) can affect morbidity and mortality in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM). This study sought to evaluate a scoring system predicting cardio-cerebral events in HCM patients using cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET). Methods: We investigated the role of a previous prediction model based on CPET, the HYPertrophic Exercise-derived Risk score for Heart Failure-related events (HyperHF), which is derived from peak circulatory power ventilatory efficiency and left atrial diameter (LAD), for predicting a composite of SCD-related (SCD, serious ventricular arrhythmia, death from cardiac cause, heart failure admission) and stroke-related (new-onset AF, acute stroke) events. The Novel HyperHF risk model using left atrial volume index (LAVI) instead of LAD was proposed and compared with the previous HCM Risk-SCD model. Results: A total of 295 consecutive HCM patients (age 59.9±13.2, 71.2% male) who underwent CPET was included in the present study. During a median follow-up of 742 days (interquartile range 384–1047 days), 29 patients (9.8%) experienced an event (SCD-related event: 14 patients (4.7%); stroke-related event: 17 patients (5.8%)). The previous model for SCD risk score showed fair prediction ability (AUC of HCM Risk-SCD 0.670, p = 0.002; AUC of HyperHF 0.691, p = 0.001). However, the prediction power of Novel HyperHF showed the highest value among the models (AUC of Novel HyperHF 0.717, p