IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pone00/0255909.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

On the effect of COVID-19 pandemic in the excess of human mortality. The case of Brazil and Spain

Author

Listed:
  • Jorge A Borrego–Morell
  • Edmundo J Huertas
  • Nuria Torrado

Abstract

Excess of deaths is a technique used in epidemiology to assess the deaths caused by an unexpected event. For the present COVID–19 pandemic, we discuss the performance of some linear and nonlinear time series forecasting techniques widely used for modeling the actual pandemic and provide estimates for this metric from January 2020 to April 2021. We apply the results obtained to evaluate the evolution of the present pandemic in Brazil and Spain, which allows in particular to compare how well (or bad) these countries have managed the pandemic. For Brazil, our calculations refute the claim made by some officials that the present pandemic is “a little flu”. Some studies suggest that the virus could be lying dormant across the world before been detected for the first time. In that regard, our results show that there is no evidence of deaths by the virus in 2019.

Suggested Citation

  • Jorge A Borrego–Morell & Edmundo J Huertas & Nuria Torrado, 2021. "On the effect of COVID-19 pandemic in the excess of human mortality. The case of Brazil and Spain," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(9), pages 1-14, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0255909
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0255909
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0255909
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0255909&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pone.0255909?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0255909. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: plosone (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.