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Employment impacts of the San Francisco sugar-sweetened beverage tax 2 years after implementation

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  • Samantha Marinello
  • Julien Leider
  • Lisa M Powell

Abstract

Introduction: Sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) taxes have been implemented worldwide to raise revenue and reduce consumption of SSBs, which is associated with health harms. Empirical evaluations have found that these taxes are successful at reducing demand for SSBs; however, SSB taxes face opposition, in part because of claims that they will lead to substantial job losses. The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of the San Francisco SSB tax, implemented on January 1st, 2018, on employment. Methods: Monthly employment counts were obtained from the Bureau of Labor Statistics from January 2013 (5-years pre-tax) through December 2019 (2-years post-tax) for the overall economy, private sector, supermarkets and other grocery stores, convenience stores, limited-service restaurants, and beverage manufacturing. A synthetic control analysis was conducted for each employment outcome. The synthetic controls (i.e., estimated counterfactuals) were generated from a pool of urban control counties using pre-tax labor market-related characteristics. Results: The synthetic controls had similar labor market-related characteristics and employment outcomes to those in San Francisco in the pre-tax period. Up to 2 years post-tax, differences in employment between San Francisco and the synthetic controls were small and not “statistically significant” based on placebo tests for all employment outcomes. Conclusions: Up to two years post-tax, we do not find evidence that the San Francisco SSB tax negatively impacted net employment, employment in the private sector, or employment in specific SSB-related industries.

Suggested Citation

  • Samantha Marinello & Julien Leider & Lisa M Powell, 2021. "Employment impacts of the San Francisco sugar-sweetened beverage tax 2 years after implementation," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(6), pages 1-16, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0252094
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0252094
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Díaz, Juan-José & Sánchez, Alan & Diez-Canseco, Francisco & Jaime Miranda, J. & Popkin, Barry M., 2023. "Employment and wage effects of sugar-sweetened beverage taxes and front-of-package warning label regulations on the food and beverage industry: Evidence from Peru," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).

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