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Prediction of the COVID-19 epidemic trends based on SEIR and AI models

Author

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  • Shuo Feng
  • Zebang Feng
  • Chen Ling
  • Chen Chang
  • Zhongke Feng

Abstract

In December 2019, the outbreak of a new coronavirus-caused pneumonia (COVID-19) in Wuhan attracted close attention in China and the world. The Chinese government took strong national intervention measures on January 23 to control the spread of the epidemic. We are trying to show the impact of these controls on the spread of the epidemic. We proposed an SEIR(Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed) model to analyze the epidemic trend in Wuhan and use the AI model to analyze the epidemic trend in non-Wuhan areas. We found that if the closure was lifted, the outbreak in non-Wuhan areas of mainland China would double in size. Our SEIR and AI model was effective in predicting the COVID-19 epidemic peaks and sizes. The epidemic control measures taken by the Chinese government, especially the city closure measures, reduced the scale of the COVID-19 epidemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Shuo Feng & Zebang Feng & Chen Ling & Chen Chang & Zhongke Feng, 2021. "Prediction of the COVID-19 epidemic trends based on SEIR and AI models," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(1), pages 1-15, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0245101
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0245101
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    Cited by:

    1. Benjamin Born & Alexander M Dietrich & Gernot J Müller, 2021. "The lockdown effect: A counterfactual for Sweden," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(4), pages 1-13, April.
    2. Meliksah Turker & Haluk O. Bingol, 2023. "Multi-layer network approach in modeling epidemics in an urban town," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 96(2), pages 1-13, February.
    3. Yongdong Shi & Rongsheng Huang & Hanwen Cui, 2021. "Prediction and Analysis of Tourist Management Strategy Based on the SEIR Model during the COVID-19 Period," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(19), pages 1-12, October.
    4. Tianyi Li & Jiawen Luo & Cunrui Huang, 2021. "Urban Epidemic Hazard Index for Chinese Cities: Why Did Small Cities Become Epidemic Hotspots?," Papers 2103.05189, arXiv.org.

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