Changes to the sample design and weighting methods of a public health surveillance system to also include persons not receiving HIV medical care

Objectives: The Medical Monitoring Project (MMP) is a public health surveillance system that provides representative estimates of the experiences and behaviors of adults with diagnosed HIV in the United States. In 2015, the sample design and frame of MMP changed from a system that only included HIV patients to one that captures the experiences of persons receiving and not receiving HIV care. We describe methods investigated for calculating survey weights, the approach chosen, and the benefits of using a dynamic surveillance registry as a sampling frame. Methods: MMP samples adults with diagnosed HIV from the National HIV Surveillance System, the HIV case surveillance registry for the United States. In the methodological study presented in this manuscript, we compared methods that account for sample design and nonresponse, including weighting class adjustment vs. propensity weighting and a single-stage nonresponse adjustment vs. sequential adjustments for noncontact and nonresponse. We investigated how best to adjust for non-coverage using surveillance data to post-stratify estimates. Results: After assessing these methods, we chose as our preferred procedure weighting class adjustments and a single-stage nonresponse adjustment. Classes were constructed using variables associated with respondents’ characteristics and important survey outcomes, chief among them laboratory results available from surveillance that served as a proxy for medical care. Conclusions: MMPs weighting procedures reduced sample bias by leveraging auxiliary information on medical care available from the surveillance registry sampling frame. Expanding MMPs population of focus provides important information on characteristics of persons with diagnosed HIV that complement the information provided by the surveillance registry. MMP methods can be applied to other disease registries or population-monitoring systems when more detailed information is needed for a population, with the detailed information obtained efficiently from a representative sample of the population covered by the registry.