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Multiple drivers of the COVID-19 spread: The roles of climate, international mobility, and region-specific conditions

Author

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  • Yasuhiro Kubota
  • Takayuki Shiono
  • Buntarou Kusumoto
  • Junichi Fujinuma

Abstract

Following its initial appearance in December 2019, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) quickly spread around the globe. Here, we evaluated the role of climate (temperature and precipitation), region-specific COVID-19 susceptibility (BCG vaccination factors, malaria incidence, and percentage of the population aged over 65 years), and human mobility (relative amounts of international visitors) in shaping the geographical patterns of COVID-19 case numbers across 1,020 countries/regions, and examined the sequential shift that occurred from December 2019 to June 30, 2020 in multiple drivers of the cumulative number of COVID-19 cases. Our regression model adequately explains the cumulative COVID-19 case numbers (per 1 million population). As the COVID-19 spread progressed, the explanatory power (R2) of the model increased, reaching > 70% in April 2020. Climate, host mobility, and host susceptibility to COVID-19 largely explained the variance among COVID-19 case numbers across locations; the relative importance of host mobility and that of host susceptibility to COVID-19 were both greater than that of climate. Notably, the relative importance of these factors changed over time; the number of days from outbreak onset drove COVID-19 spread in the early stage, then human mobility accelerated the pandemic, and lastly climate (temperature) propelled the phase following disease expansion. Our findings demonstrate that the COVID-19 pandemic is deterministically driven by climate suitability, cross-border human mobility, and region-specific COVID-19 susceptibility. The identification of these multiple drivers of the COVID-19 outbreak trajectory, based on mapping the spread of COVID-19, will contribute to a better understanding of the COVID-19 disease transmission risk and inform long-term preventative measures against this disease.

Suggested Citation

  • Yasuhiro Kubota & Takayuki Shiono & Buntarou Kusumoto & Junichi Fujinuma, 2020. "Multiple drivers of the COVID-19 spread: The roles of climate, international mobility, and region-specific conditions," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(9), pages 1-15, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0239385
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0239385
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    Cited by:

    1. Jane K L Teh & David A Bradley & Jack Bee Chook & Kee Huong Lai & Woo Teck Ang & Kok Lay Teo & Suat-Cheng Peh, 2021. "Multivariate visualization of the global COVID-19 pandemic: A comparison of 161 countries," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(5), pages 1-11, May.
    2. Joji Abraham & Christopher Turville & Kim Dowling & Singarayer Florentine, 2021. "Does Climate Play Any Role in COVID-19 Spreading?—An Australian Perspective," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(17), pages 1-14, August.
    3. Tadeusz Ciupa & Roman Suligowski, 2021. "Green-Blue Spaces and Population Density versus COVID-19 Cases and Deaths in Poland," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(12), pages 1-17, June.
    4. Sharma, Gagan Deep & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Jain, Mansi & Yadav, Anshita & Srivastava, Mrinalini, 2021. "COVID-19 and environmental concerns: A rapid review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    5. Sheree A. Pagsuyoin & Gustavo Salcedo & Joost R. Santos & Christopher B. Skinner, 2022. "Pandemic wave trends in COVID-19 cases, mobility reduction, and climate parameters in major metropolitan areas in the United States," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 350-361, September.

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