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Investigating SOFA, delta-SOFA and MPM-III for mortality prediction among critically ill patients at a private tertiary hospital ICU in Kenya: A retrospective cohort study

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  • Lillian N Lukoko
  • Peter S Kussin
  • Rodney D Adam
  • James Orwa
  • Wangari Waweru-Siika

Abstract

Background: Outcomes in well-resourced, intensive care units (ICUs) in Kenya are thought to be comparable to those in high-income countries (HICs) but risk-adjusted mortality data is unavailable. We undertook an evaluation of the Aga Khan University Hospital, Nairobi ICU to analyze patient clinical-demographic characteristics, compare the performance of Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), delta-SOFA at 48 hours and Mortality Prediction Model-III (MPM-III) mortality prediction systems, and identify factors associated with increased risk of mortality. Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted of adult patients admitted to the ICU between January 2015 and September 2017. SOFA and MPM-III scores were determined at admission and SOFA repeated at 48 hours. Results: Approximately 33% of patients did not meet ICU admission criteria. Mortality among the population of critically ill patients in the ICU was 31.7%, most of whom were male (61.4%) with a median age of 53.4 years. High adjusted odds of mortality were found among critically ill patients with leukemia (aOR 6.32, p 0.05) while delta-SOFA was borderline (p = 0.05). Conclusion: Mortality among the critically ill was higher than expected in this well-resourced ICU. 48-hour SOFA performed better than admission SOFA, MPM-III and delta-SOFA in our cohort. While a large proportion of patients did not meet admission criteria but were boarded in the ICU, critically ill patients stepped-up from the step-down unit were unlikely to survive. Patients admitted following a cardiac arrest, and those with advanced disease such as leukemia, stage-4 HIV and metastatic cancer, had particularly poor outcomes. Policies for fair allocation of beds, protocol-driven admission criteria and appropriate case selection could contribute to lowering the risk of mortality among the critically ill to a level on par with HICs.

Suggested Citation

  • Lillian N Lukoko & Peter S Kussin & Rodney D Adam & James Orwa & Wangari Waweru-Siika, 2020. "Investigating SOFA, delta-SOFA and MPM-III for mortality prediction among critically ill patients at a private tertiary hospital ICU in Kenya: A retrospective cohort study," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(7), pages 1-14, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0235809
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0235809
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    1. Elisabeth D Riviello & Willy Kiviri & Robert A Fowler & Ariel Mueller & Victor Novack & Valerie M Banner-Goodspeed & Julia L Weinkauf & Daniel S Talmor & Theogene Twagirumugabe, 2016. "Predicting Mortality in Low-Income Country ICUs: The Rwanda Mortality Probability Model (R-MPM)," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(5), pages 1-14, May.
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