Assessment of community vulnerability and medical surge capacity in a foreseeable major disaster

Objective: Developing an adequate disaster response capacity involves an assessment of available resources in areas that are vulnerable to disaster. Here, we sought to evaluate the gap between predicted damage in a foreseeable major earthquake versus existing municipality-level resources in Tokyo, Japan. Methods: Our study focused on the 53 municipalities in Tokyo to evaluate the relationships between the predicted number of severe casualties per 1,000 population from a future earthquake, community characteristics, and inpatient bed supply in local hospitals. Correlation analysis and supply–demand balance estimations were carried out at the municipality level, and the results were geographically visualized using choropleth maps. Results: The correlation analysis showed that higher casualties were correlated with municipalities with faster population increase, higher taxable incomes, lower unemployment rates, and higher bed volumes in disaster base hospitals. Under a maximal damage scenario in a future earthquake, we predict a shortage of 2,780 beds for the treatment of severe casualties across Tokyo. Even under a scenario of cooperation among neighboring municipalities, a shortage of 7,107 beds would remain. Conclusions: Tokyo is located in a zone where major earthquake damage is anticipated. Cooperation between neighboring municipalities may not suffice to address the undersupply of beds during the acute phase of a disaster. Hence, existing disaster preparedness plans require further reinforcement with a focus on local vulnerabilities.