Predicting drug activity against cancer cells by random forest models based on minimal genomic information and chemical properties

A key goal of precision medicine is predicting the best drug therapy for a specific patient from genomic information. In oncology, cancers that appear similar pathologically can vary greatly in how they respond to the same drug. Fortunately, data from high-throughput screening programs often reveal important relationships between genomic variability of cancer cells and their response to drugs. Nevertheless, many current computational methods to predict compound activity against cancer cells require large quantities of genomic, epigenomic, and additional cellular data to develop and to apply. Here we integrate recent screening data and machine learning to train classification models that predict the activity/inactivity of compounds against cancer cells based on the mutational status of only 145 oncogenes and a set of compound structural descriptors. Using IC50 values of 1 μM as activity cutoffs, our predictive models have sensitivities of 87%, specificities of 87%, and yield an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve equal to 0.94. We also develop regression models to predict log(IC50) values of compounds for cancer cells; the models achieve a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.86 for cross-validation and up to 0.65–0.73 against blind test sets. Predictive performance remains strong when as few as 50 oncogenes are included. Finally, even when 40% of experimental IC50 values are missing from screening data, they can be imputed with sufficient reliability that classification accuracy is not diminished. The presented models are fast to generate and may serve as easily implemented screening tools for personalized oncology medicine, drug repurposing, and drug discovery.