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Survival prediction among patients with non-cancer-related end-stage liver disease

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  • Yi-Wen Tsai
  • I-Shiang Tzeng
  • Yi-Chuan Chen
  • Tsung-Han Hsieh
  • Shy-Shin Chang

Abstract

Background: Predicting the survival of non-cancer related end-stage-liver-disease patients in general practice has been difficult for physicians because of the extremely variable trajectories due to multiple complex clinical factors, hence it remains a challenging issue to date. This study aimed to develop and validate a specific prognostic scoring system to early recognize the prognosis and improve the quality of end-of life care for non-cancer end-stage-liver-disease population. Materials and methods: A multicentre, retrospective cohort study was conducted during January 2010 ~ December 2012 and continued follow-up until December 2014. A cox proportional hazard regression analysis was used to derive and validate an optimized model. The main outcome measures were the 28-day, 3-month, 6-month, and 12-month mortality prediction. The performance of the novel model was evaluated, including discrimination and calibration. Results: A total of 4,080 consecutive subjects were enrolled. The AUROCs for the 3-month survival discrimination in the MELD, MELD-Na and novel model were 0.787, 0.705 and 0.804 (P

Suggested Citation

  • Yi-Wen Tsai & I-Shiang Tzeng & Yi-Chuan Chen & Tsung-Han Hsieh & Shy-Shin Chang, 2018. "Survival prediction among patients with non-cancer-related end-stage liver disease," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(9), pages 1-12, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0202692
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0202692
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