Water and nitrogen management effects on semiarid sorghum production and soil trace gas flux under future climate

External inputs to agricultural systems can overcome latent soil and climate constraints on production, while contributing to greenhouse gas emissions from fertilizer and water management inefficiencies. Proper crop selection for a given region can lessen the need for irrigation and timing of N fertilizer application with crop N demand can potentially reduce N2O emissions and increase N use efficiency while reducing residual soil N and N leaching. However, increased variability in precipitation is an expectation of climate change and makes predicting biomass and gas flux responses to management more challenging. We used the DayCent model to test hypotheses about input intensity controls on sorghum (Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench) productivity and greenhouse gas emissions in the southwestern United States under future climate. Sorghum had been previously parameterized for DayCent, but an inverse-modeling via parameter estimation method significantly improved model validation to field data. Aboveground production and N2O flux were more responsive to N additions than irrigation, but simulations with future climate produced lower values for sorghum than current climate. We found positive interactions between irrigation at increased N application for N2O and CO2 fluxes. Extremes in sorghum production under future climate were a function of biomass accumulation trajectories related to daily soil water and mineral N. Root C inputs correlated with soil organic C pools, but overall soil C declined at the decadal scale under current weather while modest gains were simulated under future weather. Scaling biomass and N2O fluxes by unit N and water input revealed that sorghum can be productive without irrigation, and the effect of irrigating crops is difficult to forecast when precipitation is variable within the growing season. These simulation results demonstrate the importance of understanding sorghum production and greenhouse gas emissions at daily scales when assessing annual and decadal-scale management decisions’ effects on aspects of arid and semiarid agroecosystem biogeochemistry.