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Universal scaling laws in metro area election results

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  • Eszter Bokányi
  • Zoltán Szállási
  • Gábor Vattay

Abstract

We explain the anomaly of election results between large cities and rural areas in terms of urban scaling in the 1948–2016 US elections and in the 2016 EU referendum of the UK. The scaling curves are all universal and depend on a single parameter only, and one of the parties always shows superlinear scaling and drives the process, while the sublinear exponent of the other party is merely the consequence of probability conservation. Based on the recently developed model of urban scaling, we give a microscopic model of voter behavior in which we replace diversity characterizing humans in creative aspects with social diversity and tolerance. The model can also predict new political developments such as the fragmentation of the left and the immigration paradox.

Suggested Citation

  • Eszter Bokányi & Zoltán Szállási & Gábor Vattay, 2018. "Universal scaling laws in metro area election results," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(2), pages 1-11, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0192913
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0192913
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    Cited by:

    1. Cardoso, M. & Souza, J.T.G. & Neli, R.R. & Souza, W.E., 2023. "Scaling laws from Brazilian state election results point out that, the candidate’s chance to win increases by investing more campaign efforts in smaller electorates," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 619(C).
    2. Cardoso, M. & Silva, L.M.C. & Neli, R.R. & Souza, W.E., 2022. "Electorate involvement disorder: Universal relationship between the amplitude and electorate size in second round of Brazilian Presidential Election," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 591(C).

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