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Stock assessment and end-to-end ecosystem models alter dynamics of fisheries data

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  • Laura S Storch
  • Sarah M Glaser
  • Hao Ye
  • Andrew A Rosenberg

Abstract

Although all models are simplified approximations of reality, they remain useful tools for understanding, predicting, and managing populations and ecosystems. However, a model’s utility is contingent on its suitability for a given task. Here, we examine two model types: single-species fishery stock assessment and multispecies marine ecosystem models. Both are efforts to predict trajectories of populations and ecosystems to inform fisheries management and conceptual understanding. However, many of these ecosystems exhibit nonlinear dynamics, which may not be represented in the models. As a result, model outputs may underestimate variability and overestimate stability. Using nonlinear forecasting methods, we compare predictability and nonlinearity of model outputs against model inputs using data and models for the California Current System. Compared with model inputs, time series of model-processed outputs show more predictability but a higher prevalence of linearity, suggesting that the models misrepresent the actual predictability of the modeled systems. Thus, caution is warranted: using such models for management or scenario exploration may produce unforeseen consequences, especially in the context of unknown future impacts.

Suggested Citation

  • Laura S Storch & Sarah M Glaser & Hao Ye & Andrew A Rosenberg, 2017. "Stock assessment and end-to-end ecosystem models alter dynamics of fisheries data," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(2), pages 1-11, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0171644
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0171644
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Erik Olsen & Gavin Fay & Sarah Gaichas & Robert Gamble & Sean Lucey & Jason S Link, 2016. "Ecosystem Model Skill Assessment. Yes We Can!," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(1), pages 1-24, January.
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    3. Elizabeth A Fulton & Anthony D M Smith & David C Smith & Penelope Johnson, 2014. "An Integrated Approach Is Needed for Ecosystem Based Fisheries Management: Insights from Ecosystem-Level Management Strategy Evaluation," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(1), pages 1-16, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Andres Camilo Castaño-Barreto & Carlos Alberto Jaramillo-Cruz & Raul Andres Molina Benavides & Alberto Stanislao Atzori, 2020. "Scenarios of Sustainable Fishing in the Zapatosa Marsh (Colombia) Simulated with a System Dynamics Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-22, April.
    2. Inomata, Sandrelly Oliveira & Gonzalez, Alba Maria Guadalupe Orellana & Román, Rodrigo Máximo Sánchez & de Souza, Lucirene Aguiar & de Carvalho Freitas, Carlos Edwar, 2018. "Sustainability of small-scale fisheries in the middle Negro River (Amazonas – Brazil): A model with operational and biological variables," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 368(C), pages 312-320.

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