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Fitting HIV Prevalence 1981 Onwards for Three Indian States Using the Goals Model and the Estimation and Projection Package

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  • Tarun Bhatnagar
  • Tapati Dutta
  • John Stover
  • Sheela Godbole
  • Damodar Sahu
  • Kangusamy Boopathi
  • Shilpa Bembalkar
  • Kh Jitenkumar Singh
  • Rajat Goyal
  • Arvind Pandey
  • Sanjay M Mehendale

Abstract

Models are designed to provide evidence for strategic program planning by examining the impact of different interventions on projected HIV incidence. We employed the Goals Model to fit the HIV epidemic curves in Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu states of India where HIV epidemic is considered to have matured and in a declining phase. Input data in the Goals Model consisted of demographic, epidemiological, transmission-related and risk group wise behavioral parameters. The HIV prevalence curves generated in the Goals Model for each risk group in the three states were compared with the epidemic curves generated by the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) that the national program is routinely using. In all the three states, the HIV prevalence trends for high-risk populations simulated by the Goals Model matched well with those derived using state-level HIV surveillance data in the EPP. However, trends for the low- and medium-risk populations differed between the two models. This highlights the need to generate more representative and robust data in these sub-populations and consider some structural changes in the modeling equation and parameters in the Goals Model to effectively use it to assess the impact of future strategies of HIV control in various sub-populations in India at the sub-national level.

Suggested Citation

  • Tarun Bhatnagar & Tapati Dutta & John Stover & Sheela Godbole & Damodar Sahu & Kangusamy Boopathi & Shilpa Bembalkar & Kh Jitenkumar Singh & Rajat Goyal & Arvind Pandey & Sanjay M Mehendale, 2016. "Fitting HIV Prevalence 1981 Onwards for Three Indian States Using the Goals Model and the Estimation and Projection Package," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(10), pages 1-12, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0164001
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0164001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Carel Pretorius & John Stover & Lori Bollinger & Nicolas Bacaër & Brian Williams, 2010. "Evaluating the Cost-Effectiveness of Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP) and Its Impact on HIV-1 Transmission in South Africa," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 5(11), pages 1-10, November.
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